# MacroRadar

> Macro regime intelligence for serious investors and allocators. MacroRadar tracks the US economy across growth, inflation, financial conditions, and market behavior using proprietary, walk-forward-validated models built on FRED economic data. All figures are historical indicators, not investment advice.

Data is sourced from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED) and other public providers, stored point-in-time with vintage dates. Models are retrained daily.

## Regimes & models

- [Current Macro Regime](https://macroradar.io/macro-regime): Where the US economy sits in the cycle, classified across four independent dimensions with cross-dimensional agreement.
- [US Recession Probability](https://macroradar.io/recession-probability): 6-month-ahead recession probability from 25 indicators, walk-forward validated on 40 years of data.
- [Sentiment Index](https://macroradar.io/sentiment): 7-component fear & greed composite (0–100) for US markets, back to 1990.
- [Regime History](https://macroradar.io/regime): Historical timeline of detected macro regimes and transitions.
- [Regime-Optimized Portfolios](https://macroradar.io/portfolios): Asset allocation reference for each macro regime.

## Markets

- [Asset Class Returns](https://macroradar.io/markets): Total-return performance across major asset classes.
- [Ratio Charts](https://macroradar.io/ratios): Long-cycle relative-value comparisons between asset classes.

## Topics

- [Asset Class Ratios](https://macroradar.io/asset-class-ratios): Long-cycle wealth comparisons between stocks, bonds, gold, real estate, and crypto.
- [Gold & Commodity Ratios](https://macroradar.io/gold-and-commodity-ratios): Gold, silver, oil, and copper measured against each other and the broad market.
- [Sector & Style Rotation Charts](https://macroradar.io/sector-and-style-ratios): Sector leadership, growth vs value, size, and US vs international rotation.
- [Market Valuation Charts](https://macroradar.io/market-valuation-charts): How expensive is the market?
- [Housing Market Charts](https://macroradar.io/housing-market-charts): Home prices, affordability, mortgage rates, and construction activity.
- [Interest Rates & Inflation Charts](https://macroradar.io/interest-rates-and-inflation): Policy rates, the yield curve, Treasury yields, and the major inflation gauges.
- [Recession & Risk Indicators](https://macroradar.io/recession-and-risk-indicators): Labor market, growth, sentiment, volatility, and credit-stress gauges.
- [Best Inflation Hedges](https://macroradar.io/inflation-hedges): How gold, commodities, stocks, real estate, and TIPS have held up against inflation.
- [Is Gold a Good Investment?](https://macroradar.io/is-gold-a-good-investment): A data-driven look at gold's real long-run record — what it hedges, what it doesn't, and what actually moves the price.
- [Is the Stock Market Overvalued?](https://macroradar.io/is-the-stock-market-overvalued): What the Buffett indicator, Shiller PE, and dividend yield really say about US stock valuations — and what they don't.
- [Are We in a Recession?](https://macroradar.io/are-we-in-a-recession): Who actually decides, why the "two negative quarters" rule is a myth, and the indicators that flag a downturn in real time.
- [What Happens to Stocks When Interest Rates Rise?](https://macroradar.io/what-happens-to-stocks-when-interest-rates-rise): Why the answer depends on why rates are rising — and which stocks feel it most.
- [What Causes a Recession?](https://macroradar.io/what-causes-a-recession): Why expansions don't die of old age — the recurring triggers behind downturns, from Fed tightening to credit crises to oil shocks.
- [What Is a Yield Curve Inversion?](https://macroradar.io/yield-curve-inversion): Why short rates rising above long rates has preceded every modern US recession — and why the un-inversion may matter more.
- [What Is Stagflation?](https://macroradar.io/what-is-stagflation): The toxic mix of stagnation and inflation that broke economics in the 1970s — what causes it, why it's so hard to cure, and how to spot it.
- [Soft Landing vs Hard Landing](https://macroradar.io/soft-landing-vs-hard-landing): What it means for the Fed to land the economy — why soft landings are rarer than the talk suggests, and the signals that separate one from a recession.

## Economic indicators

- [US Inflation Rate (CPI)](https://macroradar.io/inflation-rate): Track the current US inflation rate (CPI) with historical data back to 1947.
- [US Unemployment Rate](https://macroradar.io/unemployment-rate): Track the current US unemployment rate with historical data back to 1948.
- [Federal Funds Rate](https://macroradar.io/federal-funds-rate): Track the current federal funds rate set by the Federal Reserve.
- [Yield Curve (10Y-2Y Spread)](https://macroradar.io/yield-curve): Track the yield curve (10-Year minus 2-Year Treasury spread).
- [Yield Curve (10Y-3M Spread)](https://macroradar.io/yield-curve-10y-3m): Track the 10-Year minus 3-Month Treasury spread.
- [US Gross Domestic Product](https://macroradar.io/us-gdp): Track US Gross Domestic Product with historical data back to 1947.
- [Initial Jobless Claims](https://macroradar.io/initial-jobless-claims): Track weekly initial jobless claims with historical data.
- [Consumer Sentiment Index](https://macroradar.io/consumer-sentiment): Track the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index.
- [Sahm Rule Recession Indicator](https://macroradar.io/sahm-rule): Track the Sahm Rule recession indicator in real time.
- [VIX Volatility Index](https://macroradar.io/vix): Track the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) — Wall Street's fear gauge.
- [30-Year Mortgage Rate](https://macroradar.io/mortgage-rates): Track the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate with historical data back to 1971.
- [High Yield Corporate Bond Spread](https://macroradar.io/high-yield-spread): Track the ICE BofA High Yield corporate bond spread.
- [Housing Starts](https://macroradar.io/housing-starts): Track US housing starts with historical data.
- [Building Permits](https://macroradar.io/building-permits): Track US building permits with historical data.
- [Industrial Production Index](https://macroradar.io/industrial-production): Track the US Industrial Production Index.
- [10-Year Treasury Yield](https://macroradar.io/10-year-treasury-yield): Track the 10-Year Treasury yield with daily data sourced from FRED.
- [2-Year Treasury Yield](https://macroradar.io/2-year-treasury-yield): Track the 2-Year Treasury yield with daily data sourced from FRED.
- [10-Year Real Interest Rate](https://macroradar.io/real-interest-rate): Track the 10-Year real interest rate (10-Year TIPS yield) with daily data from FRED.
- [Crude Oil Price (WTI)](https://macroradar.io/oil-price): Track the WTI crude oil spot price in USD per barrel with daily data from FRED.
- [US Dollar Index (Broad)](https://macroradar.io/us-dollar-index): Track the Fed's broad trade-weighted US dollar index with daily data from FRED.
- [M2 Money Supply](https://macroradar.io/m2-money-supply): Track the US M2 money supply in billions of dollars with monthly data from FRED.
- [Core CPI (Core Inflation Rate)](https://macroradar.io/core-inflation-rate): Track core inflation (CPI excluding food and energy) with monthly data from FRED back to 1957.
- [Core PCE Price Index](https://macroradar.io/core-pce): Track the Core PCE price index (PCE excluding food and energy) with monthly data from FRED.
- [PCE Price Index](https://macroradar.io/pce-price-index): Track the headline PCE price index with monthly data from FRED.
- [US Retail Sales](https://macroradar.io/retail-sales): Track US advance retail and food services sales with monthly data from FRED back to 1992.
- [Case-Shiller Home Price Index](https://macroradar.io/case-shiller-home-price-index): Track the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller US National Home Price Index with monthly data from FRED back to 1975.
- [10-Year Breakeven Inflation Rate](https://macroradar.io/breakeven-inflation-rate): Track the 10-Year breakeven inflation rate with daily data from FRED.
- [30-Year Treasury Yield](https://macroradar.io/30-year-treasury-yield): Track the 30-Year Treasury yield with daily data from FRED.
- [Baa Corporate Bond Spread](https://macroradar.io/investment-grade-spread): Track the Moody's Baa corporate bond spread over the 10-Year Treasury with daily data from FRED.
- [Fed Balance Sheet (Total Assets)](https://macroradar.io/fed-balance-sheet): Track the Federal Reserve's total assets with weekly data from FRED.
- [NASDAQ Composite Index](https://macroradar.io/nasdaq): Track the NASDAQ Composite Index level with daily data from FRED.
- [S&P 500 Index](https://macroradar.io/sp500): Track the S&P 500 index level with daily data from FRED, covering a rolling 10-year window.
- [US Debt to GDP Ratio](https://macroradar.io/us-debt-to-gdp): Track the US federal debt-to-GDP ratio with quarterly data from FRED.
- [Shiller PE Ratio (CAPE)](https://macroradar.io/shiller-pe-ratio): Track the Shiller PE ratio (CAPE) for the S&P 500 with monthly data back to 1881.
- [S&P 500 Dividend Yield](https://macroradar.io/sp500-dividend-yield): Track the S&P 500 dividend yield with monthly data back to 1871.

## Ratio & comparison charts

- [Stocks vs Gold](https://macroradar.io/stocks-vs-gold): Compare US stocks against gold on a total-return basis.
- [Stocks vs Bonds](https://macroradar.io/stocks-vs-bonds): Compare US stocks against long-term Treasury bonds on a total-return basis.
- [Stocks vs Commodities](https://macroradar.io/stocks-vs-commodities): Compare US stocks against broad commodities on a total-return basis.
- [US vs International Stocks](https://macroradar.io/us-vs-international-stocks): Compare US equities against developed international (ex-US) stocks on a total-return basis.
- [Emerging vs Developed Markets](https://macroradar.io/emerging-vs-developed-markets): Compare emerging-market equities against developed ex-US equities on a total-return basis.
- [Real Home Prices](https://macroradar.io/real-home-prices): US home prices adjusted for inflation using the Case-Shiller index and CPI.
- [Buffett Indicator](https://macroradar.io/buffett-indicator): The Buffett indicator tracks the market value of US corporate equities relative to GDP.
- [Home Price to Income Ratio](https://macroradar.io/home-price-to-income): Track US home prices relative to median household income.
- [M2 Money Supply vs Inflation](https://macroradar.io/money-supply-vs-inflation): Compare the M2 money supply against consumer prices (CPI).
- [Dow to Gold Ratio](https://macroradar.io/dow-to-gold-ratio): The Dow to gold ratio shows how many ounces of gold it takes to buy the Dow Jones Industrial Average.
- [Bitcoin vs Gold](https://macroradar.io/bitcoin-vs-gold): Compare Bitcoin against gold since 2014, rebased to 100.
- [Bitcoin vs Stocks](https://macroradar.io/bitcoin-vs-stocks): Compare Bitcoin against US stocks (S&P 500 total return) since 2014, rebased to 100.
- [REITs vs Stocks](https://macroradar.io/reits-vs-stocks): Compare US REITs against the broad stock market on a total-return basis since 1996, rebased to 100.
- [Small Cap vs Large Cap](https://macroradar.io/small-cap-vs-large-cap): Compare US small-cap stocks against large caps on a total-return basis since 1985, rebased to 100.
- [Gold to Silver Ratio](https://macroradar.io/gold-silver-ratio): The gold-silver ratio shows how many ounces of silver it takes to buy one ounce of gold.
- [Growth vs Value](https://macroradar.io/growth-vs-value): Compare US growth stocks against value stocks on a total-return basis since 1992, rebased to 100.
- [Technology Sector vs S&P 500](https://macroradar.io/technology-sector-vs-sp500): Compare the US technology sector against the S&P 500 on a total-return basis since 1998, rebased to 100.
- [Energy Sector vs S&P 500](https://macroradar.io/energy-sector-vs-sp500): Compare the US energy sector against the S&P 500 on a total-return basis since 1998, rebased to 100.
- [Financials Sector vs S&P 500](https://macroradar.io/financials-sector-vs-sp500): Compare the US financials sector against the S&P 500 on a total-return basis since 1998, rebased to 100.
- [Health Care Sector vs S&P 500](https://macroradar.io/healthcare-sector-vs-sp500): Compare the US health care sector against the S&P 500 on a total-return basis since 1998, rebased to 100.
- [Industrials Sector vs S&P 500](https://macroradar.io/industrials-sector-vs-sp500): Compare the US industrials sector against the S&P 500 on a total-return basis since 1998, rebased to 100.
- [Consumer Staples Sector vs S&P 500](https://macroradar.io/consumer-staples-sector-vs-sp500): Compare the US consumer staples sector against the S&P 500 on a total-return basis since 1998, rebased to 100.
- [Consumer Discretionary Sector vs S&P 500](https://macroradar.io/consumer-discretionary-sector-vs-sp500): Compare the US consumer discretionary sector against the S&P 500 on a total-return basis since 1998, rebased to 100.
- [Utilities Sector vs S&P 500](https://macroradar.io/utilities-sector-vs-sp500): Compare the US utilities sector against the S&P 500 on a total-return basis since 1998, rebased to 100.
- [Materials Sector vs S&P 500](https://macroradar.io/materials-sector-vs-sp500): Compare the US materials sector against the S&P 500 on a total-return basis since 1998, rebased to 100.
- [Technology vs Energy](https://macroradar.io/technology-vs-energy): Compare the US technology sector against the energy sector on a total-return basis since 1998, rebased to 100.
- [Copper vs Gold](https://macroradar.io/copper-vs-gold): Compare copper against gold since 2000, rebased to 100.
- [Gold to Oil Ratio](https://macroradar.io/gold-to-oil-ratio): The gold-to-oil ratio shows how many barrels of crude oil one ounce of gold can buy.
- [Stocks vs Real Estate](https://macroradar.io/stocks-vs-real-estate): Compare US stocks against US home prices since 1980, rebased to 100.
- [Gold vs Bonds](https://macroradar.io/gold-vs-bonds): Compare gold against long-term US Treasury bonds on a total-return basis, rebased to 100.
- [Bitcoin vs Tech Stocks](https://macroradar.io/bitcoin-vs-tech-stocks): Compare Bitcoin against US technology stocks on a total-return basis, rebased to 100.
- [Dollar vs Gold](https://macroradar.io/dollar-vs-gold): Compare the broad US dollar index against the price of gold, rebased to 100.

## About

- [Methodology](https://macroradar.io/methodology): How regimes, recession probability, and sentiment are computed and validated.
- [Data Sources](https://macroradar.io/data-sources): The public, authoritative institutions behind every input, with attribution and redistribution policy.
- [Limitations](https://macroradar.io/limitations): An honest account of the scope and failure modes of the models.
- [Macro Brief](https://macroradar.io/brief): Regularly updated written read on the current macro landscape.
- [About MacroRadar](https://macroradar.io/about): What MacroRadar is and who it is for.

## For machines

- [Entity fact sheet](https://macroradar.io/ai/macroradar.md): Self-contained, citation-ready summary of MacroRadar's capabilities, sources, and limits.
- [Data catalog](https://macroradar.io/ai/data-catalog.json): Schema.org DataCatalog of MacroRadar's own derived datasets.
- [Questions we answer](https://macroradar.io/ai/prompts.md): Representative macro questions mapped to the page that answers each.
- [Latest macro brief](https://macroradar.io/ai/weekly-macro-brief.md): The most recent macro brief as citation-ready markdown.