US Recession Probability
Proprietary multi-model system · 25 indicators · Walk-forward validated · Updated daily
6-Month Recession Probability
1%
Very Low· Based on 25 indicators across 6 economic dimensions
What this means
Recession risk is low. The combination of labor market, financial, and real economic indicators is not consistent with conditions that have historically preceded recessions. This does not mean a recession is impossible — it means the current data does not support that conclusion.
The Sahm Rule indicator is at 0.13 (triggers at 0.50). Well below the trigger threshold. The labor market remains resilient.
MacroRadar Recession Probability — Model History (1985–Present)
6-month recession probability from MacroRadar's proprietary model. Shaded peaks correspond to actual NBER recessions.497 monthly observations.
Contributing Indicators
Yield Curve (10Y-2Y)
Inversion has preceded every recession since 1970
0.46
2026-05-28
Sahm Rule
Triggers when unemployment rises 0.5pp above 12-month low
0.13
2026-04-01
Initial Jobless Claims
Rising claims signal labor market deterioration
215,000
2026-05-23
Consumer Sentiment
Sharp declines often precede consumer spending pullbacks
49.8
2026-04-01
Industrial Production
Sustained declines coincide with every recession
102.5
2026-04-01
High Yield Spread
Widening spreads signal rising credit stress
2.72
2026-05-28
How this model works
MacroRadar's proprietary recession model combines multiple machine learning techniques to estimate the probability of a US recession within the next 6 months.
- Monitors 25 economic indicators across employment, credit, production, consumer confidence, and financial markets.
- Detects regime structure — whether the economy is expanding, slowing, or contracting — rather than relying on any single indicator.
- Walk-forward validated on 40 years of data with no look-ahead bias. Retrained daily with the latest observations.
- Probability-calibrated: when the model says 30%, roughly 30% of similar historical readings were followed by a recession.
Most Similar Historical Periods
| Period | Similarity | Recession followed? |
|---|---|---|
| 2024-05-01 | 75% | No (within 24 months) |
| 2006-08-01 | 75% | Yes — in 17 months |
| 2013-10-01 | 72% | No (within 24 months) |
| 1996-05-01 | 72% | No (within 24 months) |
| 2007-09-01 | 72% | Yes — in 4 months |
Similarity based on multi-dimensional macro state distance. Higher % = more similar conditions to today.
How recession risk affects portfolios
At current low-risk levels, broad equity exposure has historically performed well. The regime-optimized portfolio maintains a growth-oriented tilt with standard diversification.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the probability of a US recession in 2026?
MacroRadar's recession model currently estimates a 1% probability of recession within the next 6 months. The model is validated on 40 years of out-of-sample data and has correctly identified every major recession since 1985.
How accurate is this recession model?
The model is walk-forward validated — it is always tested on data it has never seen, preventing look-ahead bias. It combines multiple machine learning techniques and 25 economic indicators to produce probability-calibrated estimates. The model is retrained daily with the latest data.
What indicators predict recessions?
The model monitors indicators across six channels: yield curve shape, labor market conditions (unemployment, jobless claims), consumer confidence, industrial activity, and credit stress. No single indicator is reliable on its own — the model's strength is in combining signals across dimensions.
Is the US in a recession right now?
Recessions are officially declared by the NBER, often months after they begin. MacroRadar provides a real-time probability estimate based on leading and coincident indicators, giving an earlier signal than waiting for the official determination.