Macro Regime Dashboard

Multi-dimensional regime intelligence

LATE CYCLE60% confidence
Recession 6m: 0.3%

Growth

late cycle

71%

Market

bull

79%

Inflation

stable

51%

Financial

neutral

97%

Sentiment

Neutral

52

Market

79%

BULL

Macro Stress

76% agree

1%

Persistence

3m
13%
6m
28%
12m
69%

Key Indicators

167 series tracked
IndicatorValueDate
US Inflation Rate (CPI)CPIAUCSL336.30Index 1982-84=1002026-09-01
US Unemployment RateUNRATE4.20Percent2026-09-01
Federal Funds RateFEDFUNDS3.75Percent2026-09-01
10-Year Treasury Yield (Monthly)GS104.99Percent2026-09-01
2-Year Treasury Yield (Monthly)GS24.65Percent2026-09-01
Moody's Baa Corporate Bond YieldBAA6.47Percent2026-09-01
3-Month Treasury Bill Rate (Monthly)TB3MS3.94Percent2026-09-01
Yield Curve (10Y-2Y Spread)T10Y2Y0.33Percent2026-10-15
Yield Curve (10Y-3M Spread)T10Y3M0.82Percent2026-10-15
US Gross Domestic ProductGDP32563.03Billions of Dollars2026-04-01
Initial Jobless ClaimsICSA199000.00Number2026-10-10
Consumer Sentiment IndexUMCSENT51.70Index 1966:Q1=1002026-08-01
Sahm Rule Recession IndicatorSAHMREALTIME0.00Percentage Points2026-09-01
VIX Volatility IndexVIXCLS16.87Index2026-10-14
30-Year Mortgage RateMORTGAGE30US7.40Percent2026-10-15
High Yield Corporate Bond SpreadBAMLH0A0HYM23.25Percent2026-10-14
Housing StartsHOUST1275.00Thousands of Units2026-08-01
Building PermitsPERMIT1403.00Thousands of Units2026-08-01
Industrial Production IndexINDPRO103.07Index 2017=1002026-08-01
10-Year Treasury YieldDGS105.19Percent2026-10-14
2-Year Treasury YieldDGS24.82Percent2026-10-14
10-Year Real Interest RateDFII102.84Percent2026-10-14
Crude Oil Price (WTI)DCOILWTICO101.91USD per Barrel2026-10-14
Crude Oil Price (Brent)DCOILBRENTEU126.55USD per Barrel2026-10-14
Natural Gas Price (Henry Hub)DHHNGSP3.22USD per Million BTU2026-10-14
US Dollar Index (Broad)DTWEXBGS121.60Index Jan 2006=1002026-10-09
M2 Money SupplyM2SL23342.80Billions of Dollars2026-08-01
Core CPI (Core Inflation Rate)CPILFESL338.90Index 1982-84=1002026-09-01
Core PCE Price IndexPCEPILFE130.46Index 2017=1002026-08-01
PCE Price IndexPCEPI131.58Index 2017=1002026-08-01
US Retail SalesRSAFS745021.00Millions of Dollars2026-09-01
Case-Shiller Home Price IndexCSUSHPINSA337.31Index Jan 2000=1002026-07-01
10-Year Breakeven Inflation RateT10YIE2.32Percent2026-10-15
30-Year Treasury YieldDGS305.52Percent2026-10-14
Baa Corporate Bond SpreadBAA10Y1.44Percent2026-10-14
Fed Balance Sheet (Total Assets)WALCL6755639.00Millions of Dollars2026-10-14
NASDAQ Composite IndexNASDAQCOM26713.03Index Feb 5, 1971=1002026-10-15
S&P 500 IndexSP5007744.06Index2026-10-15
US Debt to GDP RatioGFDEGDQ188S122.59Percent of GDP2026-01-01
Shiller PE Ratio (CAPE)SHILLER_CAPE40.71Ratio2026-10-01
S&P 500 Dividend YieldSP500_DIV_YIELD1.10Percent2026-06-01
US Dollar / Euro Exchange RateDEXUSEU1.12US Dollars per Euro2026-10-09
Japanese Yen / US Dollar Exchange RateDEXJPUS158.34Yen per US Dollar2026-10-09
US Dollar / British Pound Exchange RateDEXUSUK1.32US Dollars per Pound2026-10-09
Chinese Yuan / US Dollar Exchange RateDEXCHUS6.69Yuan per US Dollar2026-10-09
ECB Deposit Facility RateECBDFR2.50Percent2026-10-15
Germany 10-Year Government Bond YieldIRLTLT01DEM156N3.47Percent2026-09-01
UK 10-Year Government Bond YieldIRLTLT01GBM156N5.24Percent2026-09-01
Japan 10-Year Government Bond YieldIRLTLT01JPM156N3.05Percent2026-09-01
France 10-Year Government Bond YieldIRLTLT01FRM156N4.48Percent2026-09-01
Euro High Yield SpreadBAMLHE00EHYIOAS3.26Percent2026-10-14
Global Copper PricePCOPPUSDM13542.82US Dollars per Metric Ton2026-07-01
All Employees, Total NonfarmPAYEMS159044.00Thousands of Persons2026-09-01
Average Hourly Earnings of All Employees, Total PrivateCES050000000337.81Dollars per Hour2026-09-01
Average Weekly Hours of All Employees, Total PrivateAWHAETP34.40Hours2026-09-01
US Manufacturing Weekly HoursAWHMAN42.00Hours2026-09-01
Labor Force Participation RateCIVPART61.80Percent2026-09-01
Employment-Population RatioEMRATIO59.20Percent2026-09-01
US U-6 Labour Underutilisation RateU6RATE7.60Percent2026-09-01
Job Openings: Total NonfarmJTSJOL7079.00Level in Thousands2026-08-01
Quits: Total NonfarmJTSQUR1.90Rate2026-08-01
Hires: Total NonfarmJTSHIR3.30Rate2026-08-01
Layoffs and Discharges: Total NonfarmJTSLDL1641.00Level in Thousands2026-08-01
Employment Cost Index: Total compensation: All CivilianECIALLCIV177.18Index Dec 2005=1002026-04-01
US Real Hourly CompensationCOMPRNFB109.20Index 2017=1002026-04-01
Nonfarm Business Sector: Unit Labor Costs for All WorkersULCNFB123.98Index 2017=1002026-04-01
US Nonfarm Labour ProductivityOPHNFB120.02Index 2017=1002026-04-01
Real Gross Domestic ProductGDPC124408.01Billions of Chained 2017 Dollars2026-04-01
Gross Domestic Product: Implicit Price DeflatorGDPDEF133.41Index 2017=1002026-04-01
Capacity Utilization: Total IndexTCU76.27Percent2026-08-01
Industrial Production: Manufacturing (NAICS)IPMAN99.10Index 2017=1002026-08-01
US Utilities Industrial ProductionIPG2211A2N125.47Index 2017=1002026-08-01
Capacity Utilization: Manufacturing (SIC)CUMFNS75.74Percent2026-08-01
Real Disposable Personal IncomeDSPIC9618410.50Billions of Chained 2017 Dollars2026-08-01
Real personal income excluding current transfer receiptsW875RX117046.60Billions of Chained 2017 Dollars2026-08-01
Personal IncomePI27626.90Billions of Dollars2026-08-01
Personal Consumption ExpendituresPCE22308.50Billions of Dollars2026-08-01
Personal Saving RatePSAVERT4.10Percent2026-08-01
Corporate Profits After Tax (without IVA and CCAdj)CP4279.94Billions of Dollars2026-04-01
US Adjusted Corporate Profits After TaxCPATAX3877.43Billions of Dollars2026-04-01
Manufacturers' New Orders: Durable GoodsDGORDER338458.00Millions of Dollars2026-08-01
US Core Capital Goods New OrdersNEWORDER87640.00Millions of Dollars2026-08-01
Manufacturers' New Orders: Total ManufacturingAMTMNO663491.00Millions of Dollars2026-08-01
Manufacturers' New Orders: Consumer GoodsACOGNO269441.00Millions of Dollars2026-08-01
Total Business InventoriesBUSINV2818757.00Millions of Dollars2026-08-01
Total Business: Inventories to Sales RatioISRATIO1.33Ratio2026-08-01
Merchant Wholesalers InventoriesWHLSLRIMSA964199.00Millions of Dollars2026-08-01
Retailers InventoriesRETAILIMSA882176.00Millions of Dollars2026-08-01
Retail Sales: Retail Trade and Food ServicesMRTSSM44X72USS739322.00Millions of Dollars2026-08-01
Trade Balance: Goods and Services, Balance of Payments BasisBOPGSTB-105572.00Millions of Dollars2026-08-01
Exports of Goods and ServicesEXPGS3794.64Billions of Dollars2026-04-01
Imports of Goods and ServicesIMPGS4674.91Billions of Dollars2026-04-01
Total Consumer Credit Owned and SecuritizedTOTALSL5196778.44Millions of U.S. Dollars2026-08-01
Revolving Consumer Credit Owned and SecuritizedREVOLSL1352414.00Millions of U.S. Dollars2026-08-01
Nonrevolving Consumer Credit Owned and SecuritizedNONREVSL3844364.44Millions of U.S. Dollars2026-08-01
US Finance Company Motor Vehicle LoansDTCOLNVHFNM530471.54Millions of Dollars2026-07-01
Delinquency Rate on Credit Card Loans, All Commercial BanksDRCCLACBS2.85Percent2026-04-01
Bank Credit, All Commercial BanksTOTBKCR4560.50Billions of U.S. Dollars1999-07-14
Commercial and Industrial Loans, All Commercial BanksBUSLOANS2959.02Billions of U.S. Dollars2026-09-01
Consumer Loans, All Commercial BanksCONSUMER1927.13Billions of U.S. Dollars2026-09-01
Real Estate Loans, All Commercial BanksREALLN5836.72Billions of U.S. Dollars2026-09-01
US Commercial Real Estate LoansCREACBW027SBOG3142.38Billions of U.S. Dollars2026-09-30
US Bank Credit Card and Revolving LoansCCLACBW027SBOG1096.39Billions of U.S. Dollars2026-09-30
Delinquency Rate on All Loans, All Commercial BanksDRALACBN1.38Percent2026-04-01
US Residential Mortgage Delinquency RateDRSFRMACBS1.86Percent2026-04-01
Median Sales Price of New Houses Sold for the United StatesMSPUS410700.00Dollars2026-04-01
All-Transactions House Price Index for the United StatesUSSTHPI719.87Index 1980:Q1=1002026-04-01
US Residential Construction SpendingTLRESCONS894597.00Millions of Dollars2026-08-01
US Total Construction SpendingTTLCONS2203129.00Millions of Dollars2026-08-01
New One Family Houses Sold: United StatesHSN1F684.00Thousands2026-08-01
Homeownership Rate in the United StatesRHORUSQ156N65.00Percent2026-04-01
Rental Vacancy Rate in the United StatesRRVRUSQ156N7.30Percent2026-04-01
Producer Price Index by Commodity: All CommoditiesPPIACO287.93Index 1982=1002026-08-01
Producer Price Index by Commodity: Final DemandPPIFIS159.78Index Nov 2009=1002026-09-01
US CPI: ShelterCUSR0000SAH1431.91Index 1982-1984=1002026-09-01
US CPI: Used Cars and TrucksCUSR0000SETA02182.18Index 1982-1984=1002026-09-01
US CPI: Medical Care ServicesCUSR0000SAM2655.39Index 1982-1984=1002026-09-01
M1M1SL19991.10Billions of Dollars2026-08-01
Monetary Base: TotalBOGMBASE5411.60Billions of Dollars2026-08-01
Federal Reserve Overnight Reverse ReposRRPONTSYD1.20Billions of US Dollars2026-10-15
Federal Funds Effective RateDFF3.88Percent2026-10-14
Secured Overnight Financing RateSOFR3.88Percent2026-10-14
90-Day AA Nonfinancial Commercial Paper Interest RateDCPN3M4.09Percent2026-10-13
3-Month Treasury Bill Secondary Market Rate, Discount BasisDTB34.10Percent2026-10-14
5-Year Breakeven Inflation RateT5YIE2.36Percent2026-10-14
5-Year, 5-Year Forward Inflation Expectation RateT5YIFR2.31Percent2026-10-15
Federal Debt: Total Public DebtGFDEBTN39462398.00Millions of Dollars2026-04-01
Federal Government Current ReceiptsFGRECPT6055.99Billions of Dollars2026-04-01
Federal Government: Current ExpendituresFGEXPND7755.25Billions of Dollars2026-04-01
US Oil and Gas Extraction ProductionIPG211S151.17Index 2017=1002026-08-01
US Oil and Gas Extraction CapacityCAPG211S161.79Index 2017=1002026-08-01
Euro Area Harmonised Consumer PricesCP0000EZ19M086NEST103.66Index 2025=1002026-08-01
Euro Area Unemployment RateLRHUTTTTEZM156S6.70Percent2023-01-01
Real Gross Domestic Product for Euro Area (19 Countries)CLVMNACSCAB1GQEA192913099.70Millions of Chained 2010 Euros2026-04-01
Central Bank Assets for Euro Area (11-19 Countries)ECBASSETSW5943911.00Millions of Euros2026-10-09
ECB Marginal Lending Facility Rate for Euro AreaECBMLFR2.90Percent2026-10-15
ECB Main Refinancing RateECBMRRFR2.65Percent2026-10-15
Euro Area 10-Year Government Bond YieldIRLTLT01EZM156N3.22Percent2026-01-01
UK Consumer Price IndexGBRCPIALLMINMEI136.10Index 2015=1002025-03-01
UK Unemployment RateLRHUTTTTGBM156S4.90Percent2026-06-01
Japan Consumer Price IndexJPNCPIALLMINMEI103.33Index 2015=1002022-04-01
Japan Unemployment RateLRHUTTTTJPM156S2.50Percent2026-08-01
Real Gross Domestic Product for JapanJPNRGDPEXP598950.50Billions of Chained 2015 Yen2026-04-01
Japan Industrial ProductionJPNPROINDMISMEI92.31Index 2015=1002024-03-01
Japan Central Bank RateIRSTCB01JPM156N0.30Percent2023-12-01
Canada Unemployment RateLRUNTTTTCAM156S6.40Percent2026-08-01
Canada Real Gross Domestic ProductNGDPRSAXDCCAQ631031.80Millions of Domestic Currency2026-04-01
UK Real Gross Domestic ProductNGDPRSAXDCGBQ712545.00Millions of Domestic Currency2026-04-01
Canada Industrial ProductionCANPROINDMISMEI107.71Index 2015=1002024-02-01
Canada Central Bank RateIRSTCB01CAM156N5.25Percent2023-12-01
Canada 10-Year Government Bond YieldIRLTLT01CAM156N3.88Percent2026-09-01
Canadian Dollars to U.S. Dollar Spot Exchange RateDEXCAUS1.43Canadian Dollars to One U.S. Dollar2026-10-09
Philadelphia Fed General Activity IndexGACDFSA066MSFRBPHI20.90Index2026-10-01
Euro Area Unemployment Rate (Eurostat)EUROSTAT_UNE_RT_M_EA6.40Percent2026-08-01
UK Bank RateBOE_IUDBEDR3.75Percent2026-10-15
Euro Area 10-Year Government Bond Yield (ECB)ECB_IRS_EA_10Y3.93Percent2026-09-01
Canada Target Overnight RateBOC_V390792.25Percent2026-10-14
Federal Funds Target Range - Upper LimitDFEDTARU4.00Percent2026-10-15
Federal Funds Target RateDFEDTAR1.00Percent2008-12-15
Canada Industrial Production (OECD)OECD_CAN_PRVM98.35Index 2015=1002026-07-01
Japan Industrial Production (OECD)OECD_JPN_PRVM94.84Index 2015=1002026-07-01
UK Industrial ProductionOECD_GBR_PRVM112.36Index 2015=1002026-07-01
UK Consumer Price Index (OECD)OECD_GBR_CPI143.40Index 2015=1002026-08-01
UK Unemployment Rate (OECD)OECD_GBR_UNEMP4.90Percent2026-06-01
Canada Consumer Price IndexOECD_CAN_CPI134.16Index 2015=1002026-08-01
Treasury General Account BalanceWTREGEN883373.00Millions of U.S. Dollars2026-10-14
Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions IndexNFCI-0.85Index1976-09-03

What is this dashboard?

MacroRadar monitors the US economic regime across multiple independent dimensions — growth, market conditions, inflation, and financial stress. Rather than tracking any single indicator, the dashboard synthesizes 25+ economic data points into a unified regime classification that tells you where we are in the economic cycle.

Each dimension is classified independently by walk-forward machine learning models, then a fusion layer detects whether dimensions agree or diverge. When dimensions align, the signal is clear. When they diverge, it often precedes a regime transition — exactly the moments long-term investors should pay attention to.

How to read the signals

Regime Signal

The top-level signal (expansion, caution, contraction, stress) summarizes the overall economic environment. The confidence percentage shows how strongly the models agree on the current classification.

Recession Probability

The 6-month recession probability is estimated by a dedicated model validated on 40 years of historical data. Below 15% is low risk. Above 30% warrants attention.

Dimension Strip

Each row shows one economic dimension — growth, market, inflation, financial conditions. When all dimensions show the same color, conditions are clear. Mixed colors signal uncertainty.

Key Indicators

The table below tracks the individual economic indicators that feed into the regime models. Click any indicator to see its full historical chart with trend analysis and portfolio context.

Explore Further

Regime DetailRecession ProbabilitySentiment IndexRegime PortfoliosMethodology
MacroRadar provides historical macro regime analysis. Not personalized investment advice. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. Past performance does not guarantee future results. All data sourced from FRED (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis).