Macro Regime Dashboard
Multi-dimensional regime intelligence
Growth
expansion
88%
Market
neutral
100%
Inflation
stable
58%
Financial
neutral
90%
Key Indicators
15 series tracked| Indicator | Category | Value | Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| US Inflation Rate (CPI)CPIAUCSL | inflation | 332.41Index 1982-84=100 | 2026-04-01 |
| US Unemployment RateUNRATE | employment | 4.30Percent | 2026-04-01 |
| Federal Funds RateFEDFUNDS | interest_rates | 3.64Percent | 2026-04-01 |
| Yield Curve (10Y-2Y Spread)T10Y2Y | yield_curve | 0.46Percent | 2026-05-28 |
| Yield Curve (10Y-3M Spread)T10Y3M | yield_curve | 0.76Percent | 2026-05-28 |
| US Gross Domestic ProductGDP | gdp | 31819.46Billions of Dollars | 2026-01-01 |
| Initial Jobless ClaimsICSA | employment | 215000.00Number | 2026-05-23 |
| Consumer Sentiment IndexUMCSENT | consumer | 49.80Index 1966:Q1=100 | 2026-04-01 |
| Sahm Rule Recession IndicatorSAHMREALTIME | employment | 0.13Percentage Points | 2026-04-01 |
| VIX Volatility IndexVIXCLS | financial | 15.74Index | 2026-05-28 |
| 30-Year Mortgage RateMORTGAGE30US | housing | 6.53Percent | 2026-05-28 |
| High Yield Corporate Bond SpreadBAMLH0A0HYM2 | credit | 2.72Percent | 2026-05-28 |
| Housing StartsHOUST | housing | 1465.00Thousands of Units | 2026-04-01 |
| Building PermitsPERMIT | housing | 1423.00Thousands of Units | 2026-04-01 |
| Industrial Production IndexINDPRO | leading | 102.50Index 2017=100 | 2026-04-01 |
What is this dashboard?
MacroRadar monitors the US economic regime across multiple independent dimensions — growth, market conditions, inflation, and financial stress. Rather than tracking any single indicator, the dashboard synthesizes 25+ economic data points into a unified regime classification that tells you where we are in the economic cycle.
Each dimension is classified independently by proprietary machine learning models, then a fusion layer detects whether dimensions agree or diverge. When dimensions align, the signal is clear. When they diverge, it often precedes a regime transition — exactly the moments long-term investors should pay attention to.
How to read the signals
Regime Signal
The top-level signal (expansion, caution, contraction, stress) summarizes the overall economic environment. The confidence percentage shows how strongly the models agree on the current classification.
Recession Probability
The 6-month recession probability is estimated by a dedicated model validated on 40 years of historical data. Below 15% is low risk. Above 30% warrants attention.
Dimension Strip
Each row shows one economic dimension — growth, market, inflation, financial conditions. When all dimensions show the same color, conditions are clear. Mixed colors signal uncertainty.
Key Indicators
The table below tracks the individual economic indicators that feed into the regime models. Click any indicator to see its full historical chart with trend analysis and portfolio context.