Macro Regime Dashboard
Multi-dimensional regime intelligence
Growth
expansion
48%
Market
neutral
99%
Inflation
stable
76%
Financial
neutral
93%
Key Indicators
32 series tracked| Indicator | Value | Date |
|---|---|---|
| US Inflation Rate (CPI)CPIAUCSL | 332.57Index 1982-84=100 | 2026-06-01 |
| US Unemployment RateUNRATE | 4.20Percent | 2026-06-01 |
| Federal Funds RateFEDFUNDS | 3.63Percent | 2026-06-01 |
| Yield Curve (10Y-2Y Spread)T10Y2Y | 0.41Percent | 2026-07-16 |
| Yield Curve (10Y-3M Spread)T10Y3M | 0.73Percent | 2026-07-16 |
| Initial Jobless ClaimsICSA | 208000.00Number | 2026-07-11 |
| Consumer Sentiment IndexUMCSENT | 44.80Index 1966:Q1=100 | 2026-05-01 |
| Sahm Rule Recession IndicatorSAHMREALTIME | 0.07Percentage Points | 2026-06-01 |
| VIX Volatility IndexVIXCLS | 15.67Index | 2026-07-15 |
| 30-Year Mortgage RateMORTGAGE30US | 6.55Percent | 2026-07-16 |
| High Yield Corporate Bond SpreadBAMLH0A0HYM2 | 2.71Percent | 2026-07-15 |
| Housing StartsHOUST | 1177.00Thousands of Units | 2026-05-01 |
| Building PermitsPERMIT | 1410.00Thousands of Units | 2026-05-01 |
| Industrial Production IndexINDPRO | 102.65Index 2017=100 | 2026-05-01 |
| 10-Year Treasury YieldDGS10 | 4.55Percent | 2026-07-15 |
| 2-Year Treasury YieldDGS2 | 4.13Percent | 2026-07-15 |
| 10-Year Real Interest RateDFII10 | 2.32Percent | 2026-07-15 |
| Crude Oil Price (WTI)DCOILWTICO | 79.20USD per Barrel | 2026-07-13 |
| US Dollar Index (Broad)DTWEXBGS | 120.50Index (Jan 2006=100) | 2026-07-10 |
| M2 Money SupplyM2SL | 23052.30Billions of Dollars | 2026-05-01 |
| Core CPI (Core Inflation Rate)CPILFESL | 336.06Index 1982-84=100 | 2026-06-01 |
| Core PCE Price IndexPCEPILFE | 130.08Index 2017=100 | 2026-05-01 |
| PCE Price IndexPCEPI | 131.53Index 2017=100 | 2026-05-01 |
| US Retail SalesRSAFS | 768553.00Millions of Dollars | 2026-06-01 |
| 10-Year Breakeven Inflation RateT10YIE | 2.22Percent | 2026-07-16 |
| 30-Year Treasury YieldDGS30 | 5.08Percent | 2026-07-15 |
| Baa Corporate Bond SpreadBAA10Y | 1.60Percent | 2026-07-15 |
| Fed Balance Sheet (Total Assets)WALCL | 6743028.00Millions of Dollars | 2026-07-15 |
| NASDAQ Composite IndexNASDAQCOM | 25881.95Index | 2026-07-16 |
| S&P 500 IndexSP500 | 7533.77Index | 2026-07-16 |
| Shiller PE Ratio (CAPE)SHILLER_CAPE | 41.37Ratio | 2026-07-01 |
| S&P 500 Dividend YieldSP500_DIV_YIELD | 1.09Percent | 2026-06-01 |
What is this dashboard?
MacroRadar monitors the US economic regime across multiple independent dimensions — growth, market conditions, inflation, and financial stress. Rather than tracking any single indicator, the dashboard synthesizes 25+ economic data points into a unified regime classification that tells you where we are in the economic cycle.
Each dimension is classified independently by proprietary machine learning models, then a fusion layer detects whether dimensions agree or diverge. When dimensions align, the signal is clear. When they diverge, it often precedes a regime transition — exactly the moments long-term investors should pay attention to.
How to read the signals
Regime Signal
The top-level signal (expansion, caution, contraction, stress) summarizes the overall economic environment. The confidence percentage shows how strongly the models agree on the current classification.
Recession Probability
The 6-month recession probability is estimated by a dedicated model validated on 40 years of historical data. Below 15% is low risk. Above 30% warrants attention.
Dimension Strip
Each row shows one economic dimension — growth, market, inflation, financial conditions. When all dimensions show the same color, conditions are clear. Mixed colors signal uncertainty.
Key Indicators
The table below tracks the individual economic indicators that feed into the regime models. Click any indicator to see its full historical chart with trend analysis and portfolio context.