MacroRadar Sentiment Index
Fear & greed from four market legs, with the economy read beside it. FRED data, daily since 1990
As of October 2026, the MacroRadar Sentiment Index reads 51/100 — Neutral. The reading is the equal-weight mean of 4market legs — equity momentum, volatility, credit, safe-haven demand — each the rank of that day's value within its own trailing three years. Two economy legs, the yield curve and consumer sentiment, are scored the same way and shown beside it, never blended in. The daily history runs from 1990 across several full business cycles.
51
Neutral
MacroRadar Sentiment Index (daily since 1990)
1,245 daily readings, 2021-10-15 to 2026-10-15
Drag across the chart to zoom to a period; scroll or pinch to zoom in place; double-click to reset. The component panels follow.
The four legs blended into the reading
Equal weights; the headline is their mean.
When the NASDAQ trades above its 125-day average, momentum is positive and the leg scores high against its own last three years; below the average it scores low.
When the VIX sits below its own 50-day average, volatility is falling against its trend and the leg scores high; a spike above the average scores low.
A narrow spread means investors accept little extra yield for corporate credit risk and the leg scores high; a wide spread scores low.
When stocks have outrun Treasuries over the last 20 trading days the leg scores high; when Treasuries have outrun stocks, safety is being bought and it scores low.
The economy beside it
Scored the same way, shown for context, never averaged in.
A steep curve, with the 10-year yield well above the 2-year, scores high; an inverted curve, below zero, scores low. It moves in quarters, not days, which is why it sits beside the reading.
The survey level ranked against its own last 36 months; a high reading means households report more confidence than they have recently. It enters on the first day of the month after the survey.
The same index as the number above: four market legs — NASDAQ momentum, VIX against its trend, the Baa credit spread, stocks against Treasuries — each ranked only within its own trailing window, so no reading uses information from after its date. Low = fear, high = greed. The two economy panels, curve slope and consumer sentiment, are context and not part of the number. Daily back to 1990, covering the dot-com boom, the 2008 crisis and the 2020 pandemic.
Where today sits in the record
Reading 2 in a row in Neutral, since 2026-10-14.
Today's reading is at or above 44.5% of the 9,020 daily readings in the record, which covers 36 years. That is a count of the record, not a statement about what follows it.
The record's extremes
The lowest reading of each Extreme Fear run and the highest of each Extreme Greed run, deepest first. These dates are marked on the chart when its range includes them; choose All to see every one.
Lowest readings
| Date | Reading | Run |
|---|---|---|
| 1998-08-27 | 0 | 1998-07-31 to 1998-09-28 |
| 2008-09-29 | 0 | 2008-09-04 to 2008-12-15 |
| 2020-03-12 | 0 | 2020-02-25 to 2020-04-08 |
| 2015-08-25 | 1 | 2015-08-11 to 2015-09-18 |
| 2016-01-15 | 1 | 2015-12-30 to 2016-02-19 |
| 2000-10-12 | 1 | 2000-09-15 to 2000-11-06 |
| 2001-04-04 | 2 | 2001-02-16 to 2001-04-11 |
| 2001-09-21 | 2 | 2001-08-28 to 2001-10-15 |
Highest readings
| Date | Reading | Run |
|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-04 | 92 | 2024-11-21 to 2024-12-17 |
| 2024-11-13 | 92 | 2024-11-06 to 2024-11-19 |
| 2010-12-22 | 90 | 2010-12-08 to 2010-12-30 |
| 2018-03-09 | 90 | 2018-03-08 to 2018-03-16 |
| 2018-01-05 | 90 | 2018-01-02 to 2018-02-01 |
| 2024-12-24 | 89 | 2024-12-24 to 2024-12-27 |
| 2026-05-29 | 89 | 2026-04-30 to 2026-06-04 |
| 2017-05-09 | 89 | 2017-05-01 to 2017-05-16 |
Episodes in the record
An episode is an unbroken run of daily readings in one band. Runs of at least five readings are listed, latest first; shorter runs are counted. These are counts of the record, not statements about what followed.
Extreme Fear (below 25)
55 episodes of 5 readings or more since 1990; 119 shorter runs not listed.
| Start | End | Days | Low |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-12 | 2026-04-02 | 50 | 10 2026-03-30 |
| 2025-04-03 | 2025-04-23 | 21 | 8 2025-04-08 |
| 2025-03-06 | 2025-03-14 | 9 | 19 2025-03-13 |
| 2022-10-07 | 2022-10-19 | 13 | 15 2022-10-11 |
| 2022-09-27 | 2022-10-04 | 8 | 16 2022-09-30 |
| 2022-05-05 | 2022-05-26 | 22 | 12 2022-05-18 |
| 2022-04-26 | 2022-05-03 | 8 | 19 2022-04-26 |
| 2022-02-28 | 2022-03-15 | 16 | 10 2022-03-07 |
| 2020-02-25 | 2020-04-08 | 44 | 0 2020-03-12 |
| 2019-10-02 | 2019-10-10 | 9 | 13 2019-10-08 |
The latest 10 are shown; every episode is derivable from the CSV.
Extreme Greed (75 and above)
63 episodes of 5 readings or more since 1990; 186 shorter runs not listed.
| Start | End | Days | High |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-30 | 2026-06-04 | 36 | 89 2026-05-29 |
| 2024-11-21 | 2024-12-17 | 27 | 92 2024-12-04 |
| 2024-11-06 | 2024-11-19 | 14 | 92 2024-11-13 |
| 2024-06-26 | 2024-07-10 | 15 | 84 2024-07-03 |
| 2024-06-05 | 2024-06-18 | 14 | 88 2024-06-12 |
| 2024-05-15 | 2024-05-29 | 15 | 88 2024-05-20 |
| 2024-02-02 | 2024-02-12 | 11 | 81 2024-02-09 |
| 2023-12-22 | 2023-12-29 | 8 | 81 2023-12-28 |
| 2023-12-08 | 2023-12-19 | 12 | 80 2023-12-19 |
| 2023-11-17 | 2023-12-01 | 15 | 86 2023-11-24 |
The latest 10 are shown; every episode is derivable from the CSV.
What changed since the previous reading
Each leg's score against the reading before, largest move first. A positive move is toward greed. The economy legs are listed too; they do not move the headline.
- Safe-haven demand68 → 63down 5.1
- Market volatility25 → 29up 4.8
- Curve slope53 → 49down 4.5
- Equity momentum21 → 21down 0.1
- Credit appetite93 → 93unchanged
- Consumer sentiment13 → 13unchanged
The four legs blended into the reading
Equal weights; the headline is their mean.
Credit appetite
1.44pp, Baa minus 10-year
BAA10Y
A narrow spread means investors accept little extra yield for corporate credit risk and the leg scores high; a wide spread scores low.
Moody's Baa minus 10-year Treasury spread (inverted), ranked within a trailing three-year window
Equity momentum
+2.30% vs 125-day average
NASDAQCOM
When the NASDAQ trades above its 125-day average, momentum is positive and the leg scores high against its own last three years; below the average it scores low.
NASDAQ Composite against its 125-day average, ranked within a trailing three-year window
Safe-haven demand
+3.18pp, 20-day stocks minus Treasuries
NASDAQCOM · DGS10
When stocks have outrun Treasuries over the last 20 trading days the leg scores high; when Treasuries have outrun stocks, safety is being bought and it scores low.
20-day NASDAQ return minus a synthetic 20-day 10-year Treasury return, ranked within a trailing three-year window
Market volatility
-5.79% 50-day average vs VIX
VIXCLS
When the VIX sits below its own 50-day average, volatility is falling against its trend and the leg scores high; a spike above the average scores low.
50-day average of the VIX relative to the VIX (inverted), ranked within a trailing three-year window
The economy beside it
Scored the same way, shown for context, never averaged in. On 2020-03-16 every market leg read zero while the curve steepened and February's consumer survey was still the latest; blending them said “Fear” on the day the market said extreme. The record of that six-leg construction is archived as version 2.
Curve slope
+0.33pp, 10-year minus 2-year
T10Y2Y
A steep curve, with the 10-year yield well above the 2-year, scores high; an inverted curve, below zero, scores low. It moves in quarters, not days, which is why it sits beside the reading.
10-year minus 2-year Treasury yield, ranked within a trailing three-year window
Consumer sentiment
51.70index, 1966 Q1 = 100
UMCSENT
The survey level ranked against its own last 36 months; a high reading means households report more confidence than they have recently. It enters on the first day of the month after the survey.
Michigan consumer sentiment ranked within a trailing 36-month window, used from the first day of the following month
Every leg's daily score since 1990 is in the CSV download and in the API with ?history=true.
What this reading is
Neutral is the band the mean of 4 market legs lands in today. Each leg is ranked against its own trailing three years, so the number says where market conditions sit relative to their own recent history — not whether that is good, and not what happens next. Read it beside the macro regime and the recession probability, which measure different things.
How the Sentiment Index works
Six legs, every one a FRED series with history to 1990 or earlier, each scored 0–100 as its rank within its own trailing three years, using nothing observed after that day. Four are market legs and make the reading: the NASDAQ Composite against its 125-day average, the VIX against its 50-day average, Moody's Baa spread over the 10-year Treasury, and a 20-day stocks-minus-Treasuries return. The reading is their equal-weight mean, and today's is the last row of the daily history — the same function, the same inputs. Two are economy legs, the 10-year minus 2-year yield and Michigan consumer sentiment, published beside the reading and never blended in.
Consumer sentiment is monthly and published late in its month, so a month's reading enters the index on the first day of the following month, never earlier. Weights are equal by choice rather than fitted. The full rule is in the claims ledger, and every column of the history can be recomputed from the six series ids.
This is not the CNN Fear & Greed Index. It uses economic data alongside market data, its history runs from 1990, and each component's scoring rule is published. Until 2026-09-13 this page carried a different 7-component headline above a 5-component chart; that composite is archived as version 1, and the six-leg blend that briefly replaced it as version 2. Nothing is overwritten.
Cite this page
MacroRadar, "US Market Sentiment Index," https://www.macroradar.io/sentiment (as of October 2026).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the MacroRadar Sentiment Index?
A daily reading of whether US market conditions reflect fear or greed. Four market legs — NASDAQ momentum against its 125-day average, the VIX against its 50-day average, Moody's Baa credit spread, and a 20-day stocks-minus-Treasuries return — are each ranked 0-100 within their own trailing three years and averaged with equal weights. Two economy legs, the 10Y-2Y yield curve and Michigan consumer sentiment, are scored the same way and shown beside the reading, never blended in. Every input is a FRED series, and the rule is published in the claims ledger.
Why are the economy legs not part of the number?
Because they lag. On 2020-03-16 all four market legs read zero, the curve was steepening and the consumer reading was still February's survey, so a six-leg blend said Fear on the day the market said extreme. The curve leg also correlated 0.2 with the blend and near zero with every other leg. The economy legs stay on the page as context — the differentiator against a purely market-based index — without diluting the day the index exists to name.
Is the number at the top the same index as the chart?
Yes. Since 2026-09-13 today's reading is the last row of the daily history, computed by the same function from the same inputs. Earlier constructions — a 7-component headline above a 5-component chart, then a six-leg blend — are archived as version 1 and version 2 and linked on this page rather than overwritten.
How is this different from the CNN Fear & Greed Index?
MacroRadar publishes the economy beside the market reading (consumer sentiment and the yield curve, scored the same way), its daily history runs from 1990 — covering the dot-com crash, the 2008 financial crisis and the 2020 pandemic — and every leg's score and scoring rule is published, so any reading can be recomputed from the source series.
How often is the index updated, and when does consumer sentiment enter?
Daily, after each FRED update. The four market legs and the curve are daily series. Consumer sentiment is monthly and published in the last week of its month, so a month's reading enters on the first day of the following month and never earlier — no reading uses information from after its date.