Every Monday
Macro Brief
A plain-English read on what shifted in the economy — growth, market, inflation, and recession risk — published every Monday. Each brief is dated to the data as known at publication and is not revised when new figures land.
Latest · 12 October 2026
The market model's near-certainty lasted exactly one week
Last week the market model read neutral at 97.1% confidence; this week it reads 63.6%, and the bull branch that had been squeezed to 2.9% is back at 36.4%.
Read brief →2026
- 5 October 2026The inflation-shock weight moves, and three models harden
- 28 September 2026Sentiment hits Extreme Greed as the model hardens neutral
- 21 September 2026Market model leaves bull as the sentiment index turns to Greed
- 14 September 2026New sentiment index reads Fear while the market model holds bull
- 10 September 2026Market model returns to bull as growth holds late cycle, while cross-signal agreement remains soft
- 31 August 2026Market model leaves bull for neutral as risk score halves
- 23 August 2026Calm models, gloomy consumers — recession risk stays very low.
- 8 June 2026Expansion is intact and hiring is reaccelerating, but a chip-led market rout and a yield spike show investors now treat strong data as a rate-hike risk — even as a record IPO wave led by SpaceX and Anthropic prepares to hit public markets.
- 1 June 2026The expansion holds and equities sit at record highs, but a $90 oil print keeps inflation the one regime dimension worth watching.
About the brief
Each brief is generated from MacroRadar's regime models and summarises the state of the economy at a point in time. Past briefs are preserved unchanged so the record reflects what was known when it was written. See the current regime →
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The macro brief is generated from quantitative regime models. Historical analysis, not financial advice. Not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.