Every Monday
Macro Brief
A plain-English read on what shifted in the economy — growth, market, inflation, and recession risk — published every Monday. Each brief is dated to the data as known at publication and is not revised when new figures land.
Latest · 31 August 2026
Market model leaves bull for neutral as risk score halves
The market model has left bull for neutral, reading 73% confidence this week against 61% for bull a week ago, and that is the largest single change on the board.
Read brief →2026
- 23 August 2026Calm models, gloomy consumers — recession risk stays very low.
- 8 June 2026Expansion is intact and hiring is reaccelerating, but a chip-led market rout and a yield spike show investors now treat strong data as a rate-hike risk — even as a record IPO wave led by SpaceX and Anthropic prepares to hit public markets.
- 1 June 2026The expansion holds and equities sit at record highs, but a $90 oil print keeps inflation the one regime dimension worth watching.
About the brief
Each brief is generated from MacroRadar's regime models and summarises the state of the economy at a point in time. Past briefs are preserved unchanged so the record reflects what was known when it was written. See the current regime →
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The macro brief is generated from quantitative regime models. Historical analysis, not financial advice. Not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.