Yield Curve (10Y-2Y Spread)
10-Year minus 2-Year Treasury constant maturity spread.
0.46
Percent
Min
-1.08
Max
2.91
Average
1.01
10Y Percentile
51%
3M Change
+7.0%
3-Month
+7.0%
6-Month
-14.8%
12-Month
-2.1%
What this means
The 10‑year/2‑year spread has risen to 0.46%, placing it around the middle of its historic range, which shows the gap between long‑ and short‑term rates is narrowing. This indicates short‑term rates are moving closer to long‑term rates.
When the spread widens, long‑term bond prices usually fall while equities often hold up or improve. Historically, such moves have led to modest equity gains and higher bond price volatility.
Related Charts
Frequently Asked Questions
Is the yield curve inverted right now?
The yield curve is inverted when the 10Y-2Y spread is negative, meaning short-term bonds pay more than long-term bonds. Check the current reading at the top of this page.
Does an inverted yield curve predict a recession?
Historically, every US recession since 1970 was preceded by a yield curve inversion. However, the lag between inversion and recession has varied from 6 to 24 months. The un-inversion — when the curve normalizes — has often been closer to the actual recession start.
What does the yield curve mean for my portfolio?
An inverted yield curve signals that markets expect economic weakness ahead. Historically, shifting from equities toward short-term bonds and defensive assets during inversions has reduced drawdowns. Our regime model incorporates the yield curve as a key input.