Yield Curve (10Y-3M Spread)
10-Year minus 3-Month Treasury constant maturity spread.
0.76
Percent
Min
-1.89
Max
3.83
Average
1.23
10Y Percentile
58%
3M Change
-13.6%
3-Month
-13.6%
6-Month
-24.0%
12-Month
+5.6%
What this means
The 10‑year/3‑month Treasury spread has fallen to 0.76% and is shrinking, indicating a flattening yield curve that often signals slowing growth. At the 58th percentile, the spread is still above the median but trending lower.
When this spread narrows, equities historically face heightened risk while defensive assets like cash and quality bonds tend to hold up better. Investors often shift toward lower‑duration bonds and sectors that can weather a potential slowdown.
Related Charts
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the 10Y-3M spread?
The difference between the 10-Year and 3-Month Treasury yields. When negative (inverted), short-term rates exceed long-term rates — a condition historically associated with approaching recessions.
How is the 10Y-3M different from the 10Y-2Y?
The 10Y-3M spread is more directly influenced by Fed policy (the 3-Month rate tracks the fed funds rate closely). Research by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York uses the 10Y-3M as its primary recession probability model input. Both spreads are valuable — they sometimes diverge, which itself is a signal.