Macro Alerts

Yield curve inverts

The 10Y-2Y Treasury spread falls below zero — an inversion has preceded every US recession since the 1970s.

Recession probability above 25%

MacroRadar's walk-forward 6-month recession probability crosses 25% — an elevated-risk reading by historical standards.

Volatility spike (VIX above 30)

The VIX closes above 30 — a level historically associated with market stress episodes.

Extreme fear (sentiment below 20)

The MacroRadar sentiment index drops below 20 — readings this low have historically marked capitulation phases.

Credit stress (HY spread above 5%)

The high-yield credit spread widens past 5 percentage points — a level historically seen in credit-stress episodes.

Curve inversion begins

A 10Y-2Y curve-inversion span opens by the mechanical episode rules — the same transitions the episode tables count.

Curve inversion ends

An open 10Y-2Y curve-inversion span closes — the spread has held above zero long enough for the episode rules to end the span.

Bear market begins (S&P 500)

The S&P 500 closes 20% or more below its running peak, opening a bear-market span by the mechanical episode rules.

FOMC decision in 2 days

The next scheduled FOMC decision, per the Federal Reserve's own meeting calendar, is two days out.