Asset class regime views · US
How asset classes have historically performed over the following 12 months, conditional on the macro regime.
This is the three-state cycle classification (expansion / caution / contraction) these historical base rates are bucketed by. For the full multi-dimensional read — growth, inflation, and financial conditions scored independently — see the macro regime dashboard.
| Asset class | Mean 12m | Median | Hit rate | Volatility | N |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BitcoinBTC-USD | +73.5% | +54.5% | 65% | 143.4% | 62 |
| GoldGLD | +19.0% | +19.7% | 81% | 19.6% | 135 |
| US Energy SectorXLE | +12.6% | +12.4% | 74% | 24.9% | 185 |
| Emerging Market EquitiesEEM | +11.7% | +14.1% | 74% | 23.8% | 142 |
| US Growth StocksVIGRX | +10.1% | +14.7% | 76% | 21.5% | 198 |
| US Small-Cap EquitiesNAESX | +10.1% | +13.0% | 72% | 20.9% | 247 |
| Broad CommoditiesDBC | +10.0% | +5.2% | 64% | 25.6% | 126 |
| US EquitiesSPY | +9.9% | +13.7% | 75% | 17.6% | 279 |
| US Materials SectorXLB | +9.7% | +11.9% | 75% | 19.3% | 185 |
| US Technology SectorXLK | +9.6% | +13.6% | 71% | 28.4% | 185 |
| US Industrials SectorXLI | +9.5% | +14.0% | 77% | 20.4% | 185 |
| Developed ex-US EquitiesEFA | +9.4% | +13.1% | 73% | 20.2% | 161 |
| US Consumer Discretionary SectorXLY | +9.3% | +12.2% | 70% | 19.8% | 185 |
| US REITsVGSIX | +8.9% | +10.8% | 73% | 20.8% | 190 |
| US Value StocksVIVAX | +8.4% | +13.9% | 74% | 18.2% | 198 |
| US High-Yield CreditVWEHX | +7.7% | +7.8% | 84% | 9.4% | 279 |
| US Investment-Grade CreditLQD | +7.0% | +6.5% | 82% | 8.1% | 279 |
| US Health Care SectorXLV | +6.7% | +6.6% | 71% | 13.2% | 185 |
| US Utilities SectorXLU | +6.1% | +10.1% | 69% | 17.5% | 185 |
| US Consumer Staples SectorXLP | +6.0% | +8.4% | 75% | 12.3% | 185 |
| US Financials SectorXLF | +5.8% | +9.0% | 64% | 24.0% | 185 |
| US T-Bills / CashTB3MS | +4.8% | +4.7% | 100% | 3.3% | 414 |
| Long-Term US TreasurysTLT | +4.7% | +4.8% | 66% | 11.6% | 296 |
How asset class regime returns are computed
For every month-end going back decades, we label the macro regime using the same deterministic scoring model that drives the rest of MacroRadar — then measure each asset class's total return over the following 12 months. Grouping those forward returns by regime gives the historical base rates shown above: mean, median, hit rate (share of windows that were positive), and the dispersion of outcomes.
These are base rates, not forecasts. They describe what has happened historically when the economy was in a given regime — they do not predict what will happen next. Small samples (low N) mean wide uncertainty; regimes like contraction are rare, so treat thin rows with caution. Volatility is measured from overlapping windows, so read it as a dispersion indicator rather than an annualized figure.