Asset class regime views · US
How asset classes have historically performed over the following 12 months, conditional on the macro regime.
This is the three-state cycle classification (expansion / caution / contraction) these historical base rates are bucketed by. For the full multi-dimensional read — growth, inflation, and financial conditions scored independently — see the macro regime dashboard.
| Asset class | Mean 12m | Median | Hit rate | Volatility | N |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BitcoinBTC-USD | +82.2% | +64.4% | 74% | 131.8% | 54 |
| GoldGLD | +19.7% | +20.0% | 82% | 19.7% | 122 |
| Emerging Market EquitiesEEM | +11.6% | +13.7% | 76% | 24.0% | 128 |
| US Energy SectorXLE | +10.6% | +11.3% | 71% | 24.4% | 169 |
| US Growth StocksVIGRX | +10.5% | +16.1% | 76% | 21.8% | 181 |
| US Consumer Discretionary SectorXLY | +10.3% | +14.0% | 73% | 19.5% | 169 |
| US Small-Cap EquitiesNAESX | +10.0% | +12.7% | 73% | 20.9% | 231 |
| US EquitiesSPY | +9.8% | +14.5% | 77% | 17.6% | 231 |
| US Technology SectorXLK | +9.6% | +15.1% | 71% | 29.3% | 169 |
| US Materials SectorXLB | +9.6% | +11.8% | 75% | 19.3% | 169 |
| US Industrials SectorXLI | +9.2% | +14.3% | 76% | 20.8% | 169 |
| US REITsVGSIX | +9.1% | +11.6% | 73% | 21.0% | 173 |
| Developed ex-US EquitiesEFA | +9.1% | +12.8% | 74% | 20.6% | 147 |
| Broad CommoditiesDBC | +8.2% | +4.0% | 63% | 24.6% | 116 |
| US Value StocksVIVAX | +8.0% | +14.1% | 73% | 18.6% | 181 |
| US High-Yield CreditVWEHX | +7.2% | +7.8% | 84% | 8.7% | 231 |
| US Investment-Grade CreditLQD | +6.8% | +6.5% | 85% | 7.0% | 231 |
| US Health Care SectorXLV | +6.3% | +6.3% | 71% | 13.2% | 169 |
| US Utilities SectorXLU | +6.2% | +10.6% | 69% | 18.1% | 169 |
| US Consumer Staples SectorXLP | +5.8% | +8.3% | 73% | 12.7% | 169 |
| US Financials SectorXLF | +5.5% | +9.4% | 64% | 24.4% | 169 |
| Long-Term US TreasurysTLT | +5.3% | +5.8% | 73% | 9.8% | 231 |
| US T-Bills / CashTB3MS | +4.9% | +4.8% | 100% | 3.3% | 400 |
How asset class regime returns are computed
For every month-end going back decades, we label the macro regime using the same deterministic scoring model that drives the rest of MacroRadar — then measure each asset class's total return over the following 12 months. Grouping those forward returns by regime gives the historical base rates shown above: mean, median, hit rate (share of windows that were positive), and the dispersion of outcomes.
These are base rates, not forecasts. They describe what has happened historically when the economy was in a given regime — they do not predict what will happen next. Small samples (low N) mean wide uncertainty; regimes like contraction are rare, so treat thin rows with caution. Volatility is measured from overlapping windows, so read it as a dispersion indicator rather than an annualized figure.