Regime Detail — Divergences & Historical Analogs
Which indicators that usually move together have stopped, and which past periods most resemble current conditions. Both are enumerations over the published record; neither says where the economy is headed.
Why there is no transition forecast here
This page used to print a probability for each regime at 3, 6 and 12 months. Those numbers were removed. They came from a model scored on the same rows it was fitted on, and no written rule let you recompute them — so they were a forecast wearing the clothes of a measurement.
What replaces them is narrower and checkable: conditional histories — every past window that matched a stated condition, what followed each one, and the count. A distribution of what has happened, never a probability of what will.
Indicator Divergences
Consumer sentiment and leading index diverging: sentiment at 5p, leading at 77p
Credit spreads and consumer sentiment diverging: spreads at 74p, sentiment at 5p
Building permits and industrial production diverging: permits at 39p, production at 96p
Fed funds and HY spread diverging: fed funds at 69p, spread at 74p
Sahm rule and initial claims neutral: Sahm at 32p, claims at 2p
VIX and credit spreads neutral: VIX at 46p, spreads at 74p
Yield curve 10Y-3M and leading index confirming: curve at 62p, leading at 77p
Housing starts and permits confirming: starts at 29p, permits at 39p
VIX and unemployment confirming: VIX at 46p, unemployment at 55p
Yield curve and unemployment confirming: curve at 48p, unemployment at 55p
Historical Analogs
| Period | Distance | Recession followed? |
|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-01 | 0.204 | No (within 24m) |