Regime Detail — Transitions & Historical Analogs
Where is the economy headed? Transition probabilities, indicator divergences, and the historical periods that most resemble current conditions.
Transition Forecast
| Regime | 3 months | 6 months | 12 months |
|---|---|---|---|
| expansion | 93.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| late cycle | 2.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| slowdown | 2.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| contraction | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| reflation | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Indicator Divergences
Consumer sentiment and leading index diverging: sentiment at 0p, leading at 77p
Building permits and industrial production diverging: permits at 47p, production at 90p
Sahm rule and initial claims neutral: Sahm at 61p, claims at 25p
VIX and credit spreads neutral: VIX at 40p, spreads at 8p
Fed funds and HY spread neutral: fed funds at 66p, spread at 8p
Housing starts and permits neutral: starts at 72p, permits at 47p
VIX and unemployment neutral: VIX at 40p, unemployment at 61p
Yield curve 10Y-3M and leading index confirming: curve at 58p, leading at 77p
Yield curve and unemployment confirming: curve at 51p, unemployment at 61p
Credit spreads and consumer sentiment confirming: spreads at 8p, sentiment at 0p
Historical Analogs
| Period | Distance | Recession followed? |
|---|---|---|
| 2024-05-01 | 0.251 | No (within 24m) |
| 2006-08-01 | 0.251 | Yes — in 17 months |
| 2013-10-01 | 0.278 | No (within 24m) |
| 1996-05-01 | 0.281 | No (within 24m) |
| 2007-09-01 | 0.282 | Yes — in 4 months |