Macro Regime — Where Are We in the Cycle?
Multi-dimensional regime classification · Proprietary models · Updated daily
As of July 2026, MacroRadar reads the US economy as Late Cycle on growth, Stable on inflation, and Neutral on financial conditions, with 70% cross-dimensional agreement. Each dimension is classified independently and walk-forward validated on decades of data.
The economy is read across four independent dimensions. Each is classified on its own evidence and confidence below — the single regime label is a synthesis of these, not a substitute for them.
Growth
46% confidenceLate Cycle
Is the economy expanding or contracting? Based on GDP, employment, industrial production, and leading indicators.
Market
99% confidenceNeutral
Is the stock market in a bull, bear, or correction regime? Based on price trends, volatility, and breadth.
Inflation
76% confidenceStable
Is inflation accelerating, stable, or decelerating? Based on CPI components and inflation expectations.
Financial Conditions
93% confidenceNeutral
Are financial conditions loose or tight? Based on credit spreads, lending standards, and monetary policy.
What this means
The economy is currently classified as Late Cycle on the growth dimension, with Neutral market conditions. All dimensions are broadly aligned — the economic signal is clear.
The MacroRadar Sentiment Index reads 54 (Neutral). Sentiment is in a neutral range.
Historical context
The current macro configuration — late cycle growth, neutral markets, stable inflation, neutral financial conditions — most closely resembles January 2025, a period that was not followed by a recession within 24 months.
Across the 3 most similar historical periods, 2 were followed by a recession (average lead time: 4 months) and 1 saw continued expansion. This is not a prediction — it shows the range of outcomes from environments that looked like today.
MacroRadar Risk Score — Historical (1985–Present)
Composite risk score combining cross-dimensional regime signals. Higher readings have historically preceded market stress.
The Risk Score measures cross-dimensional stress — how much growth, market, inflation, and financial conditions are diverging from each other. This is different from recession probability, which estimates the likelihood of an actual recession. The risk score can be elevated during late-cycle transitions even when recession probability remains low.
Regime Probabilities — Historical (1985–Present)
How probability mass has shifted between economic regimes over 40 years. Green dominance = expansion. Red spikes = approaching recession.
Each color represents a regime state — the chart shows which regime the economy was most likely in at each point in time. When one color dominates, the signal is clear. Rapid shifts in color indicate regime transitions. Dashed white lines mark NBER recession periods.
Regime Transition Outlook
Estimated probability of each regime at 3, 6, and 12 month horizons
| Regime | 3 months | 6 months | 12 months |
|---|---|---|---|
| expansion | 38.5% | 62.2% | 84.7% |
| late cycle | 53.7% | 19.7% | 10.3% |
| slowdown | 4.5% | 14.5% | 3.8% |
| contraction | 2.1% | 2.7% | 0.7% |
| reflation | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.5% |
For a dedicated recession risk assessment, see the recession probability model →
Indicator Divergences
When indicators that usually move together start diverging, it often signals a regime transition ahead
Consumer sentiment and leading index diverging: sentiment at 0p, leading at 77p
Building permits and industrial production diverging: permits at 34p, production at 91p
Sahm rule and initial claims diverging: Sahm at 51p, claims at 11p
VIX and credit spreads diverging: VIX at 49p, spreads at 8p
Housing starts and permits neutral: starts at 68p, permits at 34p
Fed funds and HY spread neutral: fed funds at 64p, spread at 8p
Yield curve 10Y-3M and leading index confirming: curve at 58p, leading at 77p
Credit spreads and consumer sentiment confirming: spreads at 8p, sentiment at 0p
Yield curve and unemployment confirming: curve at 48p, unemployment at 54p
VIX and unemployment confirming: VIX at 49p, unemployment at 54p
Most Similar Historical Periods
Based on multi-dimensional macro state distance — which past environments most resemble today?
| Period | Similarity | Recession followed? |
|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-01 | 84% | No (within 24 months) |
| 1981-01-01 | 81% | Yes — in 7 months |
| 1980-02-01 | 79% | Yes — in 0 months |
How this regime affects portfolios
The current regime classification drives MacroRadar's portfolio allocation. Each regime has a historically optimized asset mix based on walk-forward backtesting since 1990.
What this does not do
Regime classifications describe the current state of the economy relative to past episodes. They are descriptive, not prescriptive: they do not predict future market outcomes, do not anticipate exogenous shocks, and are not investment advice. For the full scope, validation approach, and limitations, see the methodology.
Cite this page
MacroRadar, "US Macro Regime," https://www.macroradar.io/macro-regime (as of July 2026).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is a macro regime?
A macro regime describes the current state of the economy across multiple dimensions — growth, inflation, financial conditions, and market behavior. Rather than looking at individual data points, regime classification identifies the overall pattern. For example, 'late-cycle expansion with rising inflation and tightening financial conditions' is a regime that has historically preceded market corrections.
How does MacroRadar classify economic regimes?
MacroRadar uses proprietary machine learning models across multiple dimensions. Each dimension is classified independently using economic indicators, then a fusion layer detects agreement or divergence across dimensions. All models are walk-forward validated on decades of historical data — no look-ahead bias.
Where are we in the economic cycle right now?
The current regime is Late Cycle (growth), Neutral (market), Stable (inflation), and Neutral (financial conditions). Cross-dimensional agreement is 70%. See the full breakdown above.
How does the macro regime affect my portfolio?
Different regimes historically favor different asset allocations. Expansion regimes favor equities and cyclical assets. Late-cycle regimes favor defensive positioning and shorter-duration bonds. Contraction regimes favor treasuries, cash, and gold. MacroRadar's regime-optimized portfolio adjusts allocation based on the current classification.