Calm models, gloomy consumers — recession risk stays very low.

The growth model reads the economy as late cycle with 57% confidence, while outright expansion carries 36% — a mature phase of the cycle rather than a downturn.

Recession probability over the next six months stands at 0.8% — among the lowest readings this cycle — and credit agrees: the high-yield spread sits at 2.75 percentage points, scoring in the healthiest fifth of its five-year range.

Consumer sentiment is the outlier: at 49.5 the survey sits near multi-decade lows, in the bottom 5% of its ten-year range, and a 20-day tilt toward gold over stocks echoes that caution — yet the market-priced components stay calm, leaving the composite sentiment index at 48.5, squarely neutral.

The market regime model reads bull with 61% confidence, but cross-dimensional agreement is 69% — just below the 70% alignment threshold, meaning the growth, market, inflation, and financial-conditions readings are not fully confirming one another.

The inflation model reads the environment as stable with 83% confidence, though it assigns a 17% probability to an inflation-shock regime — the only tail risk it treats as non-trivial.