Macro Brief · 31 August 2026
Market model leaves bull for neutral as risk score halves
Regime when published
Growth
late cycle
Market
neutral
Inflation
stable
6m recession
0.8%
Pinned reference state, dated to the data as known at publication. Past briefs are not revised when new data arrives. See current regime →
The market model has left bull for neutral, reading 73% confidence this week against 61% for bull a week ago, and that is the largest single change on the board.
The composite risk score roughly halved, from 10.1 to 5.5, while cross-dimensional agreement barely moved at 69%, so the four dimensions are no better aligned than last week, only calmer.
Growth is unchanged in character, holding late cycle at 59% confidence against 57% a week ago, with outright expansion easing from 36% to 34%.
Recession probability over the next six months sits at 0.8%, effectively where it was last week, and credit agrees: the high-yield spread tightened from 2.75 to 2.63 percentage points and scores 88 on its five-year range.
Inflation still reads stable at 83% confidence, with an unchanged 17% weight on an inflation-shock regime, while consumer sentiment rose from 49.5 to 55.2 and remains the weakest component in the index at 9 on its ten-year percentile scale, lifting the composite from 48.5 to 50.7.
Forward look
Two readings sit at odds, and that is the thing to watch rather than any single level. The market model's shift to neutral is a loss of conviction rather than a turn, since bull still carries 27% of the probability mass. Consumer sentiment, at 9 on its ten-year percentile scale, remains far below every market-priced component in the index. These are historical model readings, not investment advice.
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The brief is generated from quantitative regime models. Historical analysis, not financial advice. Not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.