Macro Brief · 10 September 2026
Market model returns to bull as growth holds late cycle, while cross-signal agreement remains soft
Regime when published
Growth
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Market
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Inflation
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6m recession
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Pinned reference state, dated to the data as known at publication. Past briefs are not revised when new data arrives. See current regime →
The primary market model moved from neutral at 73% confidence on August 31 to bull at 74.5% today. Fusion risk rose from 5.5 to 14.4, but agreement held near 68%, so the stronger market reading does not yet have broad confirmation.
Growth remains late cycle, with confidence rising from 59% to 66.6%. August payrolls increased by 162,000 and unemployment held at 4.1%, while the ISM manufacturing index registered 54.6 for its eighth month of expansion.
The model's six-month recession probability fell from 0.85% to 0.13%. Credit spreads remain calm and the financial-conditions model is neutral at 95.8% confidence.
Inflation remains stable at 87.5% confidence, although the inflation-shock weight is 12.1%. The next inflation release will show whether this part of the model stays settled.
The broad sentiment composite edged up from 50.7 to 51.9, but its consumer component remains near the ninth percentile. A separate market-regime measure still reads caution, reinforcing the split beneath the primary bull reading.
Forward look
Historically, a late-cycle reading paired with firm market conditions and very low recession probability has been more resilient when credit stays calm. Weak consumer sentiment and the split between the primary bull model and the separate caution regime keep cross-signal agreement below 70%, so the next inflation and labor releases matter most for whether that alignment improves. These are historical model readings, not investment advice.
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The brief is generated from quantitative regime models. Historical analysis, not financial advice. Not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.