Macro Brief · 14 September 2026
New sentiment index reads Fear while the market model holds bull
Regime when published
Growth
late cycle
Market
bull
Inflation
stable
6m recession
0.2%
Pinned reference state, dated to the data as known at publication. Past briefs are not revised when new data arrives. See current regime →
The sentiment index was rebuilt on 13 September and now reads 40.7, inside its Fear band, but that is a change of instrument rather than of mood: the 51.9 carried in the 10 September edition came from a seven-component construction that has since been replaced by four market legs scored on a causal trailing percentile.
The market model holds bull at 74.2% confidence against 74.5% four days ago, and almost nothing else on the board moved with it.
Growth stays late cycle at 66.8% confidence against 66.6%, with outright expansion at 27.5%.
The six-month recession probability reads 0.15%, marginally above the 0.13% of four days ago, while the financial-conditions model is unchanged at 95.8% neutral.
Inflation still reads stable at 87.6% confidence with a 12.1% weight on an inflation-shock regime, and the composite risk score is 14.7 against 14.4, with cross-dimensional agreement flat at 68.1%.
Forward look
The gap worth naming this week is between instruments rather than inside the data. The market model holds bull while a separate month-end market-regime measure still reads caution at 66.3, and the rebuilt sentiment index sits in its Fear band on the strength of its momentum and volatility legs, which score 25.7 and 22.9. Its credit leg scores 81.3, which is the reason the recession and financial-conditions models read calm at the same time. These are historical model readings, not investment advice.
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The brief is generated from quantitative regime models. Historical analysis, not financial advice. Not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.