Macro Brief · 21 September 2026
Market model leaves bull as the sentiment index turns to Greed
Regime when published
Growth
late cycle
Market
neutral
Inflation
stable
6m recession
0.2%
Pinned reference state, dated to the data as known at publication. Past briefs are not revised when new data arrives. See current regime →
The market model left its bull reading this week and now holds neutral at 73.6% confidence, with the bull branch that carried 74.2% seven days ago down to 26.4%.
Composite risk fell alongside it, from 14.7 to 5.7, while cross-dimensional agreement was essentially unmoved at 68.2% against 68.1%, so the board grew calmer without growing more aligned.
Growth still reads late cycle and firmed to 68.5% confidence from 66.8%, with the outright expansion branch easing to 26.1% from 27.5%.
The six-month recession probability reads 0.22% against 0.15% a week ago, and the financial-conditions model is unchanged at 95.8% neutral.
Inflation holds stable at 87.6% confidence for a third consecutive week, carrying the same 12.1% weight on an inflation-shock regime.
Forward look
Three instruments point three ways this week, which is the thing worth naming. The primary market model stepped back to neutral, the rebuilt sentiment index moved the other way and left its Fear band for Greed at a composite of 58.9 against 40.7 last week, and the separate month-end market-regime measure still reads caution at 66.3 from its 31 August close. The sentiment move came from its market legs rather than the economy ones: volatility scored 53.2 against 22.9 a week ago and credit appetite scored 93.5, while consumer sentiment stayed near the bottom of its trailing window at 29.2. Historically, a late-cycle growth reading paired with calm credit and a very low recession probability has been more durable while spreads stay tight, and the next inflation and labour releases are what would disturb that. These are historical model readings, not investment advice.
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The brief is generated from quantitative regime models. Historical analysis, not financial advice. Not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.