Macro Brief · 28 September 2026
Sentiment hits Extreme Greed as the model hardens neutral
Regime when published
Growth
late cycle
Market
neutral
Inflation
stable
6m recession
0.2%
Pinned reference state, dated to the data as known at publication. Past briefs are not revised when new data arrives. See current regime →
The market model's neutral reading hardened sharply this week, to 91.5% confidence from 73.6%, and the bull branch it left behind last week fell from 26.4% to 8.5%.
Growth barely moved by comparison and still reads late cycle, at 68.0% confidence against 68.5% a week ago, with the outright expansion branch at 26.3% against 26.1%.
The six-month recession probability reads 0.20% against 0.22% last week, and the financial-conditions model is neutral at 95.8% for a fourth straight edition.
Inflation is unchanged again at 87.6% confidence with the same 12.1% weight on an inflation-shock regime, the third edition running with both figures identical.
Composite risk edged up from 5.7 to 5.9 and cross-dimensional agreement did not move at 68.2%, so a much more confident market reading bought no extra alignment across the board.
Forward look
The sentiment index went the same way it went last week, only further: a composite of 78.2 against 58.9, which puts it in its Extreme Greed band. Worth reading with the method in view, because the band is built from four market legs only. Those four are stretched — credit appetite scores 96.5, safe-haven demand 86.7, volatility 72.9 and equity momentum 56.8. The two economy legs are published beside them and never blended in, and they disagree: the curve slope scores 44.2 and consumer sentiment scores 12.5, down from 29.2 a week ago and close to the bottom of its trailing window. The separate month-end market-regime measure still reads caution, at 65.5 from its 31 August close. Historically, an extreme in the market legs alongside a consumer leg this low has been an uncomfortable pairing rather than a settled one, and the next consumer and inflation releases are what would resolve it either way. These are historical model readings, not investment advice.
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The brief is generated from quantitative regime models. Historical analysis, not financial advice. Not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.