Macro Brief · 5 October 2026
The inflation-shock weight moves, and three models harden
Regime when published
Growth
late cycle
Market
neutral
Inflation
stable
6m recession
0.2%
Pinned reference state, dated to the data as known at publication. Past briefs are not revised when new data arrives. See current regime →
The inflation-shock weight fell to 8.8% from the 12.1% it had carried in three consecutive editions, and the stable reading firmed to 90.9% confidence from 87.6%.
The market model's neutral reading hardened again, to 97.1% confidence from 91.5%, leaving 2.9% on the bull branch that read 8.5% last week.
Growth is more confidently late cycle too, at 73.3% against 68.0%, with the outright expansion branch down to 21.9% from 26.3%.
The six-month recession probability reads 0.24% against 0.20%, while the financial-conditions model is a shade firmer at 96.5% neutral from 95.8%.
Cross-dimensional agreement went the other way and eased to 67.3% from 68.2% on a composite risk score unchanged at 5.9, so three dimensions each grew more certain without converging on one another.
Forward look
The sentiment index gave back last week's extreme, reading 57.8 against 78.2, which returns it from Extreme Greed to its Greed band. The two legs that moved are the fast ones: market volatility scores 36.8 against 72.9 a week ago and equity momentum 29.7 against 56.8, while credit appetite at 81.8 and safe-haven demand at 82.9 both stayed firm. Among the two economy legs that are published beside the index and never blended into it, the curve slope improved to 61.8 while consumer sentiment sat still at 12.5, where it has been since the start of the month. The separate month-end market-regime measure has rolled to its 30 September close and still reads caution, at 66.0. Historically, a late-cycle reading this confident alongside calm credit and a consumer leg this weak has been a split rather than a settled state, and the next consumer and inflation releases are what would move it. These are historical model readings, not investment advice.
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The brief is generated from quantitative regime models. Historical analysis, not financial advice. Not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.