Macro Brief · 12 October 2026
The market model's near-certainty lasted exactly one week
Regime when published
Growth
late cycle
Market
neutral
Inflation
stable
6m recession
0.2%
Pinned reference state, dated to the data as known at publication. Past briefs are not revised when new data arrives. See current regime →
Last week the market model read neutral at 97.1% confidence; this week it reads 63.6%, and the bull branch that had been squeezed to 2.9% is back at 36.4%.
The composite risk score fell with it and by more, from 5.9 to 0.83, while cross-dimensional agreement did not move at all at 67.3%.
Growth was the opposite kind of week and barely moved, still late cycle at 72.9% against 73.3%, with the outright expansion branch at 22.3% against 21.9%.
Inflation held last week's step down rather than retracing it, stable at 90.9% confidence with an 8.7% weight on an inflation-shock regime.
The six-month recession probability is unchanged at 0.24%, and unchanged for a mechanical reason worth stating: the model's newest reading is still dated 1 October, so this is the same figure rather than a new one that happened to match, while the financial-conditions model reads 96.5% neutral.
Forward look
The sentiment index moved back up to a composite of 69.8 from 57.8 and stayed inside its Greed band throughout. Every one of its four market legs rose: safe-haven demand to 92.0, credit appetite to 87.6, market volatility to 51.4 and equity momentum to 48.3. The curve slope, one of the two economy legs published beside the index and never blended into it, improved to 72.0. The other has not moved since the start of the month: consumer sentiment scores 12.5, as it has at every reading since 1 October. The separate month-end market-regime measure is unchanged at 66.0 from its 30 September close. Historically, a market model that swings this far in a week has been describing a board where the fast readings are moving and the slow ones are not, and the next consumer and inflation releases are the ones that would settle it. These are historical model readings, not investment advice.
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The brief is generated from quantitative regime models. Historical analysis, not financial advice. Not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.