Macro Brief · 19 October 2026
Inflation's stable reading is now close to a coin flip
Regime when published
Growth
late cycle
Market
bull
Inflation
stable
6m recession
0.4%
Pinned reference state, dated to the data as known at publication. Past briefs are not revised when new data arrives. See current regime →
The inflation model's weight on an inflation-shock regime jumped to 48.4% from the 8.7% it carried last week, leaving its stable reading at 50.8% confidence against 90.9% seven days ago.
The market model crossed into bull at 79.2% confidence, where last week it read neutral and put 36.4% on the bull branch.
Growth was the one dimension that did not move, still late cycle at 72.1% against 72.9%, with the outright expansion branch at 23.3% against 22.3%.
The six-month recession probability rose to 0.40% from 0.24%, while the financial-conditions model is unchanged to the decimal at 96.5% neutral.
Cross-dimensional agreement went up rather than down, to 76.3% from 67.3%, and the composite risk score reads 0.0 against 0.83. Both of the board's own measures of coherence and risk eased in the week its inflation split widened, which is set down here as what the numbers say and not as an explanation of them.
Forward look
The sentiment index left its Greed band and reads Neutral at a composite of 51.3, against 69.8 last week. Three of its four market legs fell: equity momentum to 20.6, market volatility to 29.3 and safe-haven demand to 62.8, while credit appetite went the other way to 92.7. Of the two economy legs published beside the index and never blended into it, the curve slope eased to 48.7 and consumer sentiment is still 12.5, where it has sat since the start of the month. The separate month-end market-regime measure is unchanged at 66.0 from its 30 September close. Historically, a widening inflation split alongside firm credit and a weak consumer leg has been a board in transition rather than a settled one, and the next inflation release is the single reading that would narrow or confirm this week's move. These are historical model readings, not investment advice.
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The brief is generated from quantitative regime models. Historical analysis, not financial advice. Not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.