← Asset class regime views
Bitcoin
BTC-USD · Bitcoin in US dollars (yfinance BTC-USD), the earliest free daily history available. Pays no income, so price return equals total return.
| Regime | Mean 12m | Median | Hit rate | Volatility | N |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Expansion | +180.1% | +71.4% | 74% | 304.9% | 66 |
| Caution | +76.8% | +55.2% | 67% | 144.6% | 60 |
| Contraction | +300.1% | +299.2% | 100% | 26.2% | 6 |
Forward returns are 12-month total returns (dividends reinvested), measured from each month-end and grouped by the macro regime in effect at that month-end. Sample begins 2014-09-30.Total-return history starts at the proxy ETF's inception (2014-09-17), so contraction-regime samples in particular can be thin — read low-N rows as directional, not precise. These are historical base rates, not forecasts or investment advice.