← Asset class regime views
Broad Commodities
DBC · Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund.
| Regime | Mean 12m | Median | Hit rate | Volatility | N |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Expansion | -5.6% | -6.3% | 33% | 18.1% | 96 |
| Caution | +9.4% | +4.9% | 64% | 25.3% | 124 |
| Contraction | +25.7% | +22.3% | 80% | 29.0% | 15 |
Forward returns are 12-month total returns (dividends reinvested), measured from each month-end and grouped by the macro regime in effect at that month-end. Sample begins 2006-02-28.Total-return history starts at the proxy ETF's inception (2006-02-06), so contraction-regime samples in particular can be thin — read low-N rows as directional, not precise. These are historical base rates, not forecasts or investment advice.