← Asset class regime views
Developed ex-US Equities
EFA · iShares MSCI EAFE ETF — developed markets outside US/Canada.
| Regime | Mean 12m | Median | Hit rate | Volatility | N |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Expansion | +4.4% | +1.9% | 54% | 13.1% | 114 |
| Caution | +9.4% | +13.4% | 73% | 20.2% | 160 |
| Contraction | +30.7% | +31.9% | 100% | 14.4% | 16 |
Forward returns are 12-month total returns (dividends reinvested), measured from each month-end and grouped by the macro regime in effect at that month-end. Sample begins 2001-08-31.Total-return history starts at the proxy ETF's inception (2001-08-17), so contraction-regime samples in particular can be thin — read low-N rows as directional, not precise. These are historical base rates, not forecasts or investment advice.