← Asset class regime views
Gold
GLD · SPDR Gold Shares ETF. LBMA spot splice back to 1968 is post-MVP.
| Regime | Mean 12m | Median | Hit rate | Volatility | N |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Expansion | +4.3% | +1.5% | 55% | 15.0% | 102 |
| Caution | +19.2% | +20.0% | 82% | 19.6% | 133 |
| Contraction | +14.5% | +16.2% | 67% | 17.8% | 15 |
Forward returns are 12-month total returns (dividends reinvested), measured from each month-end and grouped by the macro regime in effect at that month-end. Sample begins 2004-11-30.Total-return history starts at the proxy ETF's inception (2004-11-18), so contraction-regime samples in particular can be thin — read low-N rows as directional, not precise. These are historical base rates, not forecasts or investment advice.