← Asset class regime views
US High-Yield Credit
VWEHX · Vanguard High-Yield Corporate Fund NAV (dividend-reinvested) — long-history HY total return; monthly-return corr 0.906 vs HYG over the 2007+ overlap. FRED ICE BofA HY TR indices are license-capped to ~3 years.
| Regime | Mean 12m | Median | Hit rate | Volatility | N |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Expansion | +7.5% | +7.1% | 89% | 7.0% | 245 |
| Caution | +7.8% | +7.8% | 84% | 9.4% | 277 |
| Contraction | +20.3% | +13.8% | 100% | 14.0% | 26 |
Forward returns are 12-month total returns (dividends reinvested), measured from each month-end and grouped by the macro regime in effect at that month-end. Sample begins 1980-01-31.Total-return history starts at the proxy ETF's inception (1980-01-02), so contraction-regime samples in particular can be thin — read low-N rows as directional, not precise. These are historical base rates, not forecasts or investment advice.