← Asset class regime views
US Investment-Grade Credit
LQD · iShares iBoxx IG Corporate Bond ETF. FRED ICE BofA TR (BAMLCC0A0CMTRIV) reaches 1988 and is preferred in the full build.
| Regime | Mean 12m | Median | Hit rate | Volatility | N |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Expansion | +7.8% | +7.7% | 84% | 8.5% | 245 |
| Caution | +7.1% | +6.5% | 83% | 8.1% | 277 |
| Contraction | +12.8% | +11.8% | 96% | 10.3% | 26 |
Forward returns are 12-month total returns (dividends reinvested), measured from each month-end and grouped by the macro regime in effect at that month-end. Sample begins 1980-01-31.Total-return history starts at the proxy ETF's inception (2002-07-26), so contraction-regime samples in particular can be thin — read low-N rows as directional, not precise. These are historical base rates, not forecasts or investment advice.