← Asset class regime views
Long-Term US Treasurys
TLT · iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF. FRED-constructed TR back to 1962 is a post-MVP splice (see ingestion plan §2).
| Regime | Mean 12m | Median | Hit rate | Volatility | N |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Expansion | +10.9% | +9.2% | 80% | 14.0% | 263 |
| Caution | +4.8% | +4.9% | 67% | 11.6% | 294 |
| Contraction | +1.3% | -3.6% | 46% | 15.5% | 26 |
Forward returns are 12-month total returns (dividends reinvested), measured from each month-end and grouped by the macro regime in effect at that month-end. Sample begins 1977-02-28.Total-return history starts at the proxy ETF's inception (2002-07-26), so contraction-regime samples in particular can be thin — read low-N rows as directional, not precise. These are historical base rates, not forecasts or investment advice.