← Asset class regime views
US Industrials Sector
XLI · Industrial Select Sector SPDR Fund — S&P 500 industrials sector total return.
| Regime | Mean 12m | Median | Hit rate | Volatility | N |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Expansion | +9.1% | +9.1% | 77% | 11.7% | 122 |
| Caution | +9.5% | +14.0% | 77% | 20.5% | 183 |
| Contraction | +36.8% | +36.5% | 94% | 22.8% | 16 |
Forward returns are 12-month total returns (dividends reinvested), measured from each month-end and grouped by the macro regime in effect at that month-end. Sample begins 1998-12-31.Total-return history starts at the proxy ETF's inception (1998-12-22), so contraction-regime samples in particular can be thin — read low-N rows as directional, not precise. These are historical base rates, not forecasts or investment advice.