← Asset class regime views
US Consumer Staples Sector
XLP · Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund — S&P 500 consumer staples sector total return.
| Regime | Mean 12m | Median | Hit rate | Volatility | N |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Expansion | +8.7% | +8.5% | 88% | 7.7% | 122 |
| Caution | +6.0% | +8.4% | 74% | 12.3% | 184 |
| Contraction | +17.6% | +17.0% | 94% | 10.7% | 16 |
Forward returns are 12-month total returns (dividends reinvested), measured from each month-end and grouped by the macro regime in effect at that month-end. Sample begins 1998-12-31.Total-return history starts at the proxy ETF's inception (1998-12-22), so contraction-regime samples in particular can be thin — read low-N rows as directional, not precise. These are historical base rates, not forecasts or investment advice.