← Asset class regime views
US Technology Sector
XLK · Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund — S&P 500 technology sector total return.
| Regime | Mean 12m | Median | Hit rate | Volatility | N |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Expansion | +14.1% | +14.2% | 84% | 17.2% | 122 |
| Caution | +9.5% | +13.3% | 71% | 28.5% | 184 |
| Contraction | +39.4% | +42.5% | 100% | 13.0% | 16 |
Forward returns are 12-month total returns (dividends reinvested), measured from each month-end and grouped by the macro regime in effect at that month-end. Sample begins 1998-12-31.Total-return history starts at the proxy ETF's inception (1998-12-22), so contraction-regime samples in particular can be thin — read low-N rows as directional, not precise. These are historical base rates, not forecasts or investment advice.