← Asset class regime views
US Small-Cap Equities
NAESX · Vanguard Small-Cap Index NAV (dividend-reinvested), the long-history US small-cap total-return proxy back to 1985. Still live, so no ETF splice needed.
| Regime | Mean 12m | Median | Hit rate | Volatility | N |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Expansion | +8.5% | +10.3% | 72% | 14.9% | 227 |
| Caution | +10.1% | +12.8% | 72% | 21.0% | 245 |
| Contraction | +43.5% | +45.5% | 94% | 19.6% | 16 |
Forward returns are 12-month total returns (dividends reinvested), measured from each month-end and grouped by the macro regime in effect at that month-end. Sample begins 1985-01-31.Total-return history starts at the proxy ETF's inception (1985-01-01), so contraction-regime samples in particular can be thin — read low-N rows as directional, not precise. These are historical base rates, not forecasts or investment advice.