← Asset class regime views
US Equities
SPY · SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust — large-cap US equity total return.
| Regime | Mean 12m | Median | Hit rate | Volatility | N |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Expansion | +13.9% | +14.3% | 88% | 12.4% | 245 |
| Caution | +9.9% | +13.8% | 75% | 17.6% | 278 |
| Contraction | +26.4% | +30.6% | 81% | 20.2% | 26 |
Forward returns are 12-month total returns (dividends reinvested), measured from each month-end and grouped by the macro regime in effect at that month-end. Sample begins 1980-01-31.Total-return history starts at the proxy ETF's inception (1993-01-29), so contraction-regime samples in particular can be thin — read low-N rows as directional, not precise. These are historical base rates, not forecasts or investment advice.