← Asset class regime views
US Value Stocks
VIVAX · Vanguard Value Index NAV (dividend-reinvested), the long-history US large-cap value total-return proxy back to 1992. Still live, so no ETF splice needed.
| Regime | Mean 12m | Median | Hit rate | Volatility | N |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Expansion | +12.2% | +12.6% | 87% | 11.1% | 183 |
| Caution | +8.4% | +13.7% | 74% | 18.2% | 197 |
| Contraction | +30.9% | +33.6% | 94% | 16.5% | 16 |
Forward returns are 12-month total returns (dividends reinvested), measured from each month-end and grouped by the macro regime in effect at that month-end. Sample begins 1992-10-31.Total-return history starts at the proxy ETF's inception (1992-10-01), so contraction-regime samples in particular can be thin — read low-N rows as directional, not precise. These are historical base rates, not forecasts or investment advice.