The Situation
The compiled state of the macro world as of Tue, Sep 1: what is open — episodes that started and have not ended — what moved most unusually, what the last scheduled decision did, and what the next seven days hold. Everything here is counted, ranked and dated against published data; nothing is attributed or forecast.
For the model-based classification of the current cycle and its full walk-forward history, see the full regime breakdown →.
Open episodes
Labeled spans that are still running — each ranked by its duration so far against the completed episodes of its kind in the same series.
Cutting cycle — Federal Funds Rate
1,127 daysOngoing since Aug 2023 — 1,127 days so far, longer than 22 of 25 completed cutting cycles in this series.
Policy regimes
Sanctions, tariff and export-control programmes, each dated from the instrument that opened it. A programme is shown closed only when the instrument that closed it can be cited; where the record holds an opening but no end, it says so rather than running a counter that would imply the programme is live.
Russia — Ukraine sovereignty
1,653 daysOpen since Feb 2022 — 1,653 days.
The instrument is the US response; the invasion it responds to is dated separately in the annotations.
COVID-19 — national emergency
1,064 daysOpened Mar 2020 — still open as of Feb 2023 by cited instrument. This record does not establish an end date.
Most unusual moves
All indicators →None of the 148 tracked series with a current print moved into its own top 5% today.
Market pricing vs. realized inflation: the 10-year breakeven was 2.31% (Mon, Aug 31), while trailing 12-month CPI was +3.3% y/y (Wed, Jul 1). Gap: -1.0 percentage points. The first is a forward 10-year average; the second is a realized trailing 12-month change.
- Consumer Sentiment Index rose 11.5% over the past month — a larger move than 95% of month-long moves since 1952.
- US Utilities Industrial Production rose 12.2% over the past month — a larger move than 92% of month-long moves since 1939.
- Federal Reserve Overnight Reverse Repos rose 212.7% over the past month — a larger move than 90% of month-long moves since 2003.
- Gross Domestic Product: Implicit Price Deflator rose 1.6% over the past quarter — a larger move than 88% of quarter-long moves since 1947.
- Imports of Goods and Services rose 6.9% over the past quarter — a larger move than 88% of quarter-long moves since 1946.
Around the FOMC decision of Jul 29
Yield Curve (10Y-2Y Spread) rose 0.10pp on the decision day — the 3rd-largest decision-day move of 46 since 2021.
| Series | Decision-day change | Rank among decisions |
|---|---|---|
| Yield Curve (10Y-2Y Spread) | +0.10pp | 3rd-largest of 46 since 2021 |
| VIX Volatility Index | +13.5% | 5th-largest of 46 since 2021 |
| 10-Year Treasury Yield | +0.06pp | 13th-largest of 46 since 2021 |
| S&P 500 Index | -1.5% | 13th-largest of 46 since 2021 |
| US Dollar Index (Broad) | +0.1% | 23rd-largest of 46 since 2021 |
| US Dollar / Euro Exchange Rate | -0.1% | 24th-largest of 46 since 2021 |
| 2-Year Treasury Yield | -0.04pp | 30th-largest of 46 since 2021 |
Each window is measured from the last close before the decision to the first close on or after it, and ranked only against the same series' other decision-day windows. Whether the decision explains a move is left to the reader — see the claims ledger and methodology.
The next seven days
See it as of a date →Full calendar →Nothing is on the tracked schedules for the next seven days.
Every sentence on this page is an instance of a documented claim type — the rules and recompute steps are in the claims ledger. Episode definitions and thresholds: episode rules · open-episode ranking · policy-regime spans. This page describes what happened and what is scheduled — a historical indicator, not advice.