The Situation
The compiled state of the macro world as of Fri, Oct 16: what is open — episodes that started and have not ended — what moved most unusually, what the last scheduled decision did, and what the next seven days hold. Everything here is counted, ranked and dated against published data; nothing is attributed or forecast.
For the model-based classification of the current cycle and its full walk-forward history, see the full regime breakdown →.
Open episodes
Labeled spans that are still running — each ranked by its duration so far against the completed episodes of its kind in the same series.
Cutting cycle — Federal Funds Rate
1,172 daysOngoing since Aug 2023 — 1,172 days so far, longer than 22 of 25 completed cutting cycles in this series.
Policy regimes
Sanctions, tariff and export-control programmes, each dated from the instrument that opened it. A programme is shown closed only when the instrument that closed it can be cited; where the record holds an opening but no end, it says so rather than running a counter that would imply the programme is live.
Aluminium — Section 232
3,144 daysOpen since Mar 2018 — 3,144 days. 3 actions in the record since Jan 2026, most recent Aug 2026.
Steel — Section 232
3,144 daysOpen since Mar 2018 — 3,144 days. 2 actions in the record since Jan 2026, most recent Aug 2026.
China — Section 301
3,130 daysOpen since Mar 2018 — 3,130 days. 2 actions in the record since Jan 2026, most recent Jul 2026.
Russia — harmful foreign activities
2,010 daysOpen since Apr 2021 — 2,010 days. 2 actions in the record since Jan 2026, most recent Sep 2026.
Russia — Ukraine sovereignty
1,698 daysOpen since Feb 2022 — 1,698 days. No actions recorded since the policy record begins (Jan 2026).
The instrument is the US response; the invasion it responds to is dated separately in the annotations.
Reciprocal tariffs
562 daysOpen since Apr 2025 — 562 days. No actions recorded since the policy record begins (Jan 2026).
Venezuela — oil revenue
280 daysOpen since Jan 2026 — 280 days. 12 actions in the record since Jan 2026, most recent Oct 2026.
Cuba — threats to the United States
260 daysOpen since Jan 2026 — 260 days. 1 action in the record since Jan 2026, most recent Sep 2026.
Iran — threats to the United States
252 daysOpen since Feb 2026 — 252 days. 4 actions in the record since Jan 2026, most recent Sep 2026.
COVID-19 — national emergency
1,064 daysOpened Mar 2020 — still open as of Feb 2023 by cited instrument. This record does not establish an end date. No actions recorded since the policy record begins (Jan 2026).
Most unusual moves
All indicators →1 of 145 tracked series with a current print moved into its own top 5% — all of it up. Producer Price Index by Commodity: Final Demand moved into its own top 5%. No other tracked series did. Nothing else in this record moved unusually alongside it — which is a fact about what we track, not about what caused the move.
Market pricing vs. realized inflation: the 10-year breakeven was 2.32% (Thu, Oct 15), while trailing 12-month CPI was +3.7% y/y (Tue, Sep 1). Gap: -1.4 percentage points. The first is a forward 10-year average; the second is a realized trailing 12-month change.
- Producer Price Index by Commodity: Final Demand rose 1.3% over the past month — a larger move than 99% of month-long moves since 2009.
- France 10-Year Government Bond Yield rose 0.45pp over the past month — a larger move than 95% of month-long moves since 1960.
- US Dollar Index (Broad) rose 3.0% over the past month — a larger move than 93% of month-long moves since 2007.
- Euro Area 10-Year Government Bond Yield (ECB) rose 0.32pp over the past month — a larger move than 93% of month-long moves since 1990.
- Euro High Yield Spread rose 0.51pp over the past month — a larger move than 92% of month-long moves since 2023.
Around the FOMC decision of Sep 16
Yield Curve (10Y-2Y Spread) fell 0.06pp on the decision day — the 9th-largest decision-day move of 47 since 2021.
| Series | Decision-day change | Rank among decisions |
|---|---|---|
| Yield Curve (10Y-2Y Spread) | -0.06pp | 9th-largest of 47 since 2021 |
| 2-Year Treasury Yield | +0.07pp | 20th-largest of 47 since 2021 |
| S&P 500 Index | -0.4% | 32nd-largest of 47 since 2021 |
| 10-Year Treasury Yield | +0.01pp | 39th-largest of 47 since 2021 |
| VIX Volatility Index | +3.0% | 39th-largest of 47 since 2021 |
| US Dollar / Euro Exchange Rate | -0.0% | 40th-largest of 47 since 2021 |
| US Dollar Index (Broad) | +0.0% | 41st-largest of 47 since 2021 |
Each window is measured from the last close before the decision to the first close on or after it, and ranked only against the same series' other decision-day windows. Whether the decision explains a move is left to the reader — see the claims ledger and methodology.
The next seven days
See it as of a date →Full calendar →Fri, Oct 16today
- usgs_earthquakesM 6.9 - 76 km NE of Ozernovskiy, Russia
- Data releaseG.17 Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization
- Data releaseH.8 Assets and Liabilities of Commercial Banks in the United States
- Data releaseHarmonized Indices of Consumer Prices (HICP)
Mon, Oct 19
- Data releaseInternational Financial Statistics
Tue, Oct 20
- Data releaseNew Residential Construction
- Data releaseNational Accounts - GDP (Eurostat)
Wed, Oct 21
- Data releaseChicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index
Thu, Oct 22
- Data releaseUnemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report
- Data releasePrimary Mortgage Market Survey
- Data releaseH.4.1 Factors Affecting Reserve Balances
Fri, Oct 23
Every sentence on this page is an instance of a documented claim type — the rules and recompute steps are in the claims ledger. Episode definitions and thresholds: episode rules · open-episode ranking · policy-regime spans. This page describes what happened and what is scheduled — a historical indicator, not advice.