What's moving
A big number is not the same as a surprising one. Every indicator below is ranked by where its latest move sits in its own history, so a 0.3 point shift in the unemployment rate and a 5% swing in oil can be compared honestly.
Consumer Sentiment Index rose 11.5% over the past month — a larger move than 95% of month-long moves since 1952.
None of the 148 tracked series with a current print moved into its own top 5% today.
Around the FOMC decision of Jul 29
Yield Curve (10Y-2Y Spread) rose 0.10pp on the decision day — the 3rd-largest decision-day move of 46 since 2021.
| Series | Decision-day change | Rank among decisions |
|---|---|---|
| Yield Curve (10Y-2Y Spread) | +0.10pp | 3rd-largest of 46 since 2021 |
| VIX Volatility Index | +13.5% | 5th-largest of 46 since 2021 |
| 10-Year Treasury Yield | +0.06pp | 13th-largest of 46 since 2021 |
| S&P 500 Index | -1.5% | 13th-largest of 46 since 2021 |
| US Dollar Index (Broad) | +0.1% | 23rd-largest of 46 since 2021 |
| US Dollar / Euro Exchange Rate | -0.1% | 24th-largest of 46 since 2021 |
| 2-Year Treasury Yield | -0.04pp | 30th-largest of 46 since 2021 |
Each window is measured from the last close before the decision to the first close on or after it, and ranked only against the same series' other decision-day windows. Whether the decision explains a move is left to the reader — see the claims ledger and methodology.
Unusual for themselves
Moves bigger than 80% of comparable moves in each series' own record.
Consumer Sentiment Index
2026-07-01
+11.5%
per month
Unusualbigger than 95% of moves
US Utilities Industrial Production
2026-07-01
+12.2%
per month
Unusualbigger than 92% of moves
Federal Reserve Overnight Reverse Repos
2026-08-31
+212.7%
per month
Unusualbigger than 90% of moves
Gross Domestic Product: Implicit Price Deflator
2026-04-01
+1.6%
per quarter
Unusualbigger than 88% of moves
Imports of Goods and Services
2026-04-01
+6.9%
per quarter
Unusualbigger than 88% of moves
Housing Starts
2026-07-01
-12.4%
per month
Unusualbigger than 87% of moves
Exports of Goods and Services
2026-04-01
+6.9%
per quarter
Unusualbigger than 86% of moves
Corporate Profits After Tax (without IVA and CCAdj)
2026-04-01
+8.9%
per quarter
Unusualbigger than 86% of moves
Total Business: Inventories to Sales Ratio
2026-06-01
+1.6%
per month
Unusualbigger than 85% of moves
New One Family Houses Sold: United States
2026-07-01
-10.5%
per month
Unusualbigger than 85% of moves
US Adjusted Corporate Profits After Tax
2026-04-01
+8.2%
per quarter
Unusualbigger than 83% of moves
Everything else
Recent prints whose latest move sits inside their normal range.
Moody's Baa Corporate Bond Yield
2026-07-01
+0.19pp
per month
Typicalbigger than 80% of moves
Japan Industrial Production (OECD)
2026-06-01
+1.9%
per month
Typicalbigger than 79% of moves
US Oil and Gas Extraction Capacity
2026-07-01
+0.3%
per month
Typicalbigger than 74% of moves
Employment Cost Index: Total compensation: All Civilian
2026-04-01
+0.9%
per quarter
Typicalbigger than 72% of moves
Hires: Total Nonfarm
2026-06-01
+3.0%
per month
Typicalbigger than 71% of moves
US Gross Domestic Product
2026-04-01
+1.9%
per quarter
Typicalbigger than 69% of moves
US CPI: Medical Care Services
2026-07-01
+0.6%
per month
Typicalbigger than 68% of moves
US Real Hourly Compensation
2026-04-01
-0.8%
per quarter
Typicalbigger than 67% of moves
Sahm Rule Recession Indicator
2026-07-01
-0.10pp
per month
Typicalbigger than 66% of moves
Producer Price Index by Commodity: All Commodities
2026-07-01
-0.8%
per month
Typicalbigger than 66% of moves
Canada Consumer Price Index
2026-07-01
+0.5%
per month
Typicalbigger than 66% of moves
High Yield Corporate Bond Spread
2026-08-28
-0.24pp
per month
Typicalbigger than 66% of moves
Homeownership Rate in the United States
2026-04-01
-0.30pp
per quarter
Typicalbigger than 64% of moves
Manufacturers' New Orders: Consumer Goods
2026-06-01
-1.5%
per month
Typicalbigger than 64% of moves
Building Permits
2026-07-01
+4.3%
per month
Typicalbigger than 61% of moves
3-Month Treasury Bill Secondary Market Rate, Discount Basis
2026-08-28
+0.05pp
per month
Typicalbigger than 61% of moves
Personal Saving Rate
2026-07-01
+0.40pp
per month
Typicalbigger than 57% of moves
US Unemployment Rate
2026-07-01
-0.10pp
per month
Typicalbigger than 57% of moves
90-Day AA Nonfinancial Commercial Paper Interest Rate
2026-08-27
+0.06pp
per month
Typicalbigger than 57% of moves
Core PCE Price Index
2026-07-01
+0.2%
per month
Typicalbigger than 57% of moves
VIX Volatility Index
2026-08-28
-15.6%
per month
Typicalbigger than 56% of moves
Real Disposable Personal Income
2026-07-01
+0.4%
per month
Typicalbigger than 55% of moves
NASDAQ Composite Index
2026-08-31
+3.9%
per month
Typicalbigger than 54% of moves
2-Year Treasury Yield
2026-08-28
+0.11pp
per month
Typicalbigger than 53% of moves
Euro Area 10-Year Government Bond Yield (ECB)
2026-07-01
+0.13pp
per month
Typicalbigger than 53% of moves
Baa Corporate Bond Spread
2026-08-28
-0.10pp
per month
Typicalbigger than 52% of moves
Canada 10-Year Government Bond Yield
2026-06-01
-0.12pp
per month
Typicalbigger than 50% of moves
Federal Government Current Receipts
2026-04-01
+1.8%
per quarter
Typicalbigger than 50% of moves
3-Month Treasury Bill Rate (Monthly)
2026-07-01
+0.07pp
per month
Typicalbigger than 50% of moves
10-Year Treasury Yield (Monthly)
2026-07-01
+0.13pp
per month
Typicalbigger than 50% of moves
Labor Force Participation Rate
2026-07-01
-0.10pp
per month
Typicalbigger than 49% of moves
UK 10-Year Government Bond Yield
2026-06-01
-0.15pp
per month
Typicalbigger than 49% of moves
M1
2026-07-01
+0.5%
per month
Typicalbigger than 49% of moves
Employment-Population Ratio
2026-07-01
-0.10pp
per month
Typicalbigger than 48% of moves
US Oil and Gas Extraction Production
2026-07-01
-0.6%
per month
Typicalbigger than 47% of moves
Consumer Loans, All Commercial Banks
2026-07-01
+0.6%
per month
Typicalbigger than 47% of moves
Chinese Yuan / US Dollar Exchange Rate
2026-08-28
-0.4%
per month
Typicalbigger than 46% of moves
S&P 500 Index
2026-08-31
+2.6%
per month
Typicalbigger than 46% of moves
ECB Deposit Facility Rate
2026-08-31
0.00pp
per month
Typicalbigger than 45% of moves
ECB Marginal Lending Facility Rate for Euro Area
2026-08-31
0.00pp
per month
Typicalbigger than 45% of moves
ECB Main Refinancing Rate
2026-08-31
0.00pp
per month
Typicalbigger than 45% of moves
US Retail Sales
2026-07-01
-0.6%
per month
Typicalbigger than 45% of moves
Real Gross Domestic Product for Euro Area (19 Countries)
2026-04-01
+0.4%
per quarter
Typicalbigger than 44% of moves
Federal Funds Target Range - Upper Limit
2026-08-31
0.00pp
per month
Typicalbigger than 44% of moves
Canada Target Overnight Rate
2026-08-27
0.00pp
per month
Typicalbigger than 43% of moves
Delinquency Rate on All Loans, All Commercial Banks
2026-04-01
-0.08pp
per quarter
Typicalbigger than 43% of moves
UK Bank Rate
2026-08-27
0.00pp
per month
Typicalbigger than 42% of moves
Euro Area Harmonised Consumer Prices
2026-07-01
+0.2%
per month
Typicalbigger than 41% of moves
US Commercial Real Estate Loans
2026-08-19
+0.4%
per month
Typicalbigger than 40% of moves
M2 Money Supply
2026-07-01
+0.4%
per month
Typicalbigger than 40% of moves
Core CPI (Core Inflation Rate)
2026-07-01
+0.2%
per month
Quietbigger than 40% of moves
2-Year Treasury Yield (Monthly)
2026-07-01
+0.11pp
per month
Quietbigger than 39% of moves
US Bank Credit Card and Revolving Loans
2026-08-19
+0.4%
per month
Quietbigger than 39% of moves
UK Industrial Production
2026-06-01
-0.5%
per month
Quietbigger than 39% of moves
Monetary Base: Total
2026-07-01
+0.6%
per month
Quietbigger than 39% of moves
All-Transactions House Price Index for the United States
2026-04-01
+1.1%
per quarter
Quietbigger than 39% of moves
UK Consumer Price Index (OECD)
2026-07-01
+0.3%
per month
Quietbigger than 39% of moves
US Dollar Index (Broad)
2026-08-28
-0.8%
per month
Quietbigger than 37% of moves
Personal Income
2026-07-01
+0.4%
per month
Quietbigger than 37% of moves
Case-Shiller Home Price Index
2026-06-01
+0.4%
per month
Quietbigger than 37% of moves
Job Openings: Total Nonfarm
2026-06-01
-2.4%
per month
Quietbigger than 36% of moves
Initial Jobless Claims
2026-08-22
+2.5%
per month
Quietbigger than 36% of moves
Delinquency Rate on Credit Card Loans, All Commercial Banks
2026-04-01
-0.06pp
per quarter
Quietbigger than 36% of moves
Revolving Consumer Credit Owned and Securitized
2026-06-01
+0.5%
per month
Quietbigger than 34% of moves
Yield Curve (10Y-2Y Spread)
2026-08-31
-0.06pp
per month
Quietbigger than 34% of moves
France 10-Year Government Bond Yield
2026-06-01
-0.06pp
per month
Quietbigger than 34% of moves
PCE Price Index
2026-07-01
+0.2%
per month
Quietbigger than 32% of moves
Germany 10-Year Government Bond Yield
2026-06-01
-0.08pp
per month
Quietbigger than 32% of moves
Shiller PE Ratio (CAPE)
2026-08-01
+1.4%
per month
Quietbigger than 32% of moves
Canada Unemployment Rate
2026-07-01
-0.10pp
per month
Quietbigger than 32% of moves
US CPI: Used Cars and Trucks
2026-07-01
+0.4%
per month
Quietbigger than 32% of moves
Crude Oil Price (Brent)
2026-08-25
-3.9%
per month
Quietbigger than 32% of moves
Federal Government: Current Expenditures
2026-04-01
+1.1%
per quarter
Quietbigger than 30% of moves
Canadian Dollars to U.S. Dollar Spot Exchange Rate
2026-08-28
-0.8%
per month
Quietbigger than 30% of moves
Real personal income excluding current transfer receipts
2026-07-01
+0.2%
per month
Quietbigger than 30% of moves
US Nonfarm Labour Productivity
2026-04-01
+0.4%
per quarter
Quietbigger than 29% of moves
Real Gross Domestic Product for Japan
2026-04-01
+0.3%
per quarter
Quietbigger than 29% of moves
Yield Curve (10Y-3M Spread)
2026-08-31
-0.08pp
per month
Quietbigger than 29% of moves
Euro High Yield Spread
2026-08-28
-0.10pp
per month
Quietbigger than 28% of moves
Federal Funds Effective Rate
2026-08-28
0.00pp
per month
Quietbigger than 28% of moves
5-Year Breakeven Inflation Rate
2026-08-31
+0.05pp
per month
Quietbigger than 27% of moves
Manufacturers' New Orders: Durable Goods
2026-07-01
+1.1%
per month
Quietbigger than 26% of moves
Central Bank Assets for Euro Area (11-19 Countries)
2026-08-21
-0.5%
per month
Quietbigger than 26% of moves
Average Weekly Hours of All Employees, Total Private
2026-07-01
0.0%
per month
Quietbigger than 24% of moves
US Dollar / Euro Exchange Rate
2026-08-28
+0.7%
per month
Quietbigger than 24% of moves
US Dollar / British Pound Exchange Rate
2026-08-28
+0.7%
per month
Quietbigger than 24% of moves
Euro Area Unemployment Rate (Eurostat)
2026-06-01
0.00pp
per month
Quietbigger than 23% of moves
10-Year Breakeven Inflation Rate
2026-08-31
+0.03pp
per month
Quietbigger than 22% of moves
Quits: Total Nonfarm
2026-06-01
0.0%
per month
Quietbigger than 22% of moves
Philadelphia Fed General Activity Index
2026-08-01
+14.5%
per month
Quietbigger than 21% of moves
Retailers Inventories
2026-06-01
-0.2%
per month
Quietbigger than 21% of moves
10-Year Treasury Yield
2026-08-28
+0.05pp
per month
Quietbigger than 21% of moves
US CPI: Shelter
2026-07-01
+0.1%
per month
Quietbigger than 21% of moves
Industrial Production: Manufacturing (NAICS)
2026-07-01
+0.2%
per month
Quietbigger than 21% of moves
Japan Unemployment Rate
2026-06-01
0.00pp
per month
Quietbigger than 21% of moves
Treasury General Account Balance
2026-08-26
+4.4%
per month
Quietbigger than 20% of moves
Retail Sales: Retail Trade and Food Services
2026-06-01
+0.2%
per month
Quietbigger than 19% of moves
Nonfarm Business Sector: Unit Labor Costs for All Workers
2026-04-01
+0.3%
per quarter
Quietbigger than 19% of moves
Real Gross Domestic Product
2026-04-01
+0.4%
per quarter
Quietbigger than 19% of moves
Total Consumer Credit Owned and Securitized
2026-06-01
+0.3%
per month
Quietbigger than 18% of moves
Industrial Production Index
2026-07-01
+0.2%
per month
Quietbigger than 18% of moves
Merchant Wholesalers Inventories
2026-06-01
+0.2%
per month
Quietbigger than 18% of moves
Japan 10-Year Government Bond Yield
2026-06-01
+0.02pp
per month
Quietbigger than 17% of moves
Natural Gas Price (Henry Hub)
2026-08-25
+2.7%
per month
Quietbigger than 17% of moves
Median Sales Price of New Houses Sold for the United States
2026-04-01
+0.5%
per quarter
Quietbigger than 16% of moves
US Residential Construction Spending
2026-06-01
-0.3%
per month
Quietbigger than 16% of moves
Manufacturers' New Orders: Total Manufacturing
2026-06-01
-0.3%
per month
Quietbigger than 14% of moves
Nonrevolving Consumer Credit Owned and Securitized
2026-06-01
+0.2%
per month
Quietbigger than 14% of moves
US Residential Mortgage Delinquency Rate
2026-04-01
-0.02pp
per quarter
Quietbigger than 13% of moves
Personal Consumption Expenditures
2026-07-01
+0.2%
per month
Quietbigger than 13% of moves
US Inflation Rate (CPI)
2026-07-01
+0.1%
per month
Quietbigger than 13% of moves
Capacity Utilization: Total Index
2026-07-01
+0.08pp
per month
Quietbigger than 13% of moves
Real Estate Loans, All Commercial Banks
2026-07-01
+0.2%
per month
Quietbigger than 12% of moves
US Manufacturing Weekly Hours
2026-07-01
0.0%
per month
Quietbigger than 12% of moves
Japanese Yen / US Dollar Exchange Rate
2026-08-28
+0.3%
per month
Quietbigger than 11% of moves
Commercial and Industrial Loans, All Commercial Banks
2026-07-01
-0.2%
per month
Quietbigger than 11% of moves
Secured Overnight Financing Rate
2026-08-28
0.00pp
per month
Quietbigger than 11% of moves
US U-6 Labour Underutilisation Rate
2026-07-01
0.00pp
per month
Quietbigger than 10% of moves
Fed Balance Sheet (Total Assets)
2026-08-26
-0.1%
per month
Quietbigger than 9% of moves
5-Year, 5-Year Forward Inflation Expectation Rate
2026-08-31
+0.01pp
per month
Quietbigger than 9% of moves
Capacity Utilization: Manufacturing (SIC)
2026-07-01
+0.06pp
per month
Quietbigger than 8% of moves
Average Hourly Earnings of All Employees, Total Private
2026-07-01
+0.1%
per month
Quietbigger than 8% of moves
US Total Construction Spending
2026-06-01
-0.1%
per month
Quietbigger than 6% of moves
US Core Capital Goods New Orders
2026-07-01
+0.2%
per month
Quietbigger than 6% of moves
US Finance Company Motor Vehicle Loans
2026-06-01
-0.1%
per month
Quietbigger than 6% of moves
Rental Vacancy Rate in the United States
2026-04-01
0.00pp
per quarter
Quietbigger than 6% of moves
Federal Funds Rate
2026-07-01
0.00pp
per month
Quietbigger than 6% of moves
Total Business Inventories
2026-06-01
+0.0%
per month
Quietbigger than 5% of moves
Producer Price Index by Commodity: Final Demand
2026-07-01
-0.0%
per month
Quietbigger than 4% of moves
Layoffs and Discharges: Total Nonfarm
2026-06-01
+0.3%
per month
Quietbigger than 4% of moves
All Employees, Total Nonfarm
2026-07-01
-0.0%
per month
Quietbigger than 3% of moves
Crude Oil Price (WTI)
2026-08-25
-0.4%
per month
Quietbigger than 3% of moves
30-Year Treasury Yield
2026-08-28
+0.01pp
per month
Quietbigger than 3% of moves
10-Year Real Interest Rate
2026-08-28
+0.01pp
per month
Quietbigger than 2% of moves
30-Year Mortgage Rate
2026-08-27
0.00pp
per month
Quietbigger than 1% of moves
S&P 500 Dividend Yield
2026-06-01
-0.00pp
per month
Quietbigger than 1% of moves
Global Copper Price
2026-07-01
-0.1%
per month
Quietbigger than 1% of moves
No recent print
These series have not published within their usual release window, so their last move says nothing about now. They are listed rather than dropped so the gap is visible.
Bank Credit, All Commercial Banks
1999-07-14· no print in 9911 days
+5.6%
per month
Rarebigger than 100% of moves
Japan Industrial Production
2024-03-01· no print in 914 days
+4.0%
per month
Rarebigger than 97% of moves
Japan Consumer Price Index
2022-04-01· no print in 1614 days
+0.4%
per month
Typicalbigger than 59% of moves
UK Consumer Price Index
2025-03-01· no print in 549 days
+0.4%
per month
Typicalbigger than 51% of moves
UK Real Gross Domestic Product
2026-01-01· no print in 243 days
+0.6%
per quarter
Typicalbigger than 48% of moves
Japan Central Bank Rate
2023-12-01· no print in 1005 days
0.00pp
per month
Typicalbigger than 45% of moves
Federal Funds Target Rate
2008-12-15· no print in 6469 days
0.00pp
per month
Quietbigger than 39% of moves
Federal Debt: Total Public Debt
2026-01-01· no print in 243 days
+1.4%
per quarter
Quietbigger than 32% of moves
Canada Industrial Production (OECD)
2026-05-01· no print in 123 days
+0.4%
per month
Quietbigger than 27% of moves
Canada Central Bank Rate
2023-12-01· no print in 1005 days
0.00pp
per month
Quietbigger than 26% of moves
Euro Area Unemployment Rate
2023-01-01· no print in 1339 days
0.00pp
per month
Quietbigger than 22% of moves
UK Unemployment Rate
2026-04-01· no print in 153 days
0.00pp
per month
Quietbigger than 19% of moves
Canada Industrial Production
2024-02-01· no print in 943 days
+0.1%
per month
Quietbigger than 12% of moves
Euro Area 10-Year Government Bond Yield
2026-01-01· no print in 243 days
-0.02pp
per month
Quietbigger than 9% of moves
US Debt to GDP Ratio
2026-01-01· no print in 243 days
+0.03pp
per quarter
Quietbigger than 3% of moves
Canada Real Gross Domestic Product
2026-01-01· no print in 243 days
-0.0%
per quarter
Quietbigger than 2% of moves
How the ranking works
For each series we measure the change over roughly one month — 21 trading days for daily series, four weeks for weekly, one period for monthly and quarterly — then compare it against every other same-length move in that series' history. The percentile is the answer to one question: how often has this series moved this much?
Series already quoted in percent, like the unemployment rate or a Treasury yield, are compared in percentage points. Everything else — indices, dollar amounts, counts — is compared in percent change. Mixing the two is what produces headlines claiming unemployment "jumped 8%" when it went from 4.0 to 4.3.
A series needs at least 60 prior moves before we quote a percentile, and the comparison window is always the history actually read, which is why the sentences say "since 1990" rather than "ever". Latest values are subject to revision by the source agency.
Dates are the period each figure covers, not the day it was published: July's CPI is dated 1 July and released in mid-August. A series counts as current if it has printed within its usual release window, which is generous enough to absorb one missed release — so a series that stops publishing takes a few months to fall into "no recent print".
The "coming up" and "official record" panels are drawn from the institutions themselves — FRED's release calendar, the Fed's meeting schedule and press feed, and the ECB, Bank of England and Bank of Japan press feeds — and are placed next to the moves, not merged with them. Whether an event explains a move is a judgement this page deliberately does not make.
This page describes what happened. It is a historical indicator, not advice — the exact rule behind every sentence is in the claims ledger; see also methodology and limitations. For where a reading sits rather than how it just moved, see where things sit in their own history.