What's moving

A big number is not the same as a surprising one. Every indicator below is ranked by where its latest move sits in its own history, so a 0.3 point shift in the unemployment rate and a 5% swing in oil can be compared honestly.

Producer Price Index by Commodity: Final Demand rose 1.3% over the past month — a larger move than 99% of month-long moves since 2009.

1 of 145 tracked series with a current print moved into its own top 5% — all of it up. Producer Price Index by Commodity: Final Demand moved into its own top 5%. No other tracked series did. Nothing else in this record moved unusually alongside it — which is a fact about what we track, not about what caused the move.

Coming up

Scheduled releases for the indicators on this page.

The official record

Recent central-bank communications, linked to the source document.

  • Oct 14US trade actionGuidance to U.S. Customs and Border Protection Regarding the Assessment of “U.S. Content” for Purposes of Implementing Tariffs Pursuant to Clause (2)(D) of Proclamation 11032 of June 1, 2026
  • Oct 13FOMC minutesMinutes of the Board's discount rate meetings on August 17, September 9, and September 16, 2026
  • Oct 13US sanctions actionPublication of Venezuela Sanctions Regulations Web General License 60
  • Oct 7FOMC minutesMinutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, September 15-16, 2026
  • Sep 30US sanctions actionContinuation of the National Emergency With Respect to the Situation in and in Relation to Syria
  • Sep 30US sanctions actionPublication of Venezuela Sanctions Regulations Web General Licenses 46C, 47A, 48B, 50B, 51B, 52A, and 54A
  • Sep 30US sanctions actionIranian Transactions and Sanctions Regulations
  • Sep 30US sanctions actionCuba Sanctions Regulations

Around the FOMC decision of Sep 16

Yield Curve (10Y-2Y Spread) fell 0.06pp on the decision day — the 9th-largest decision-day move of 47 since 2021.

SeriesDecision-day changeRank among decisions
Yield Curve (10Y-2Y Spread)-0.06pp9th-largest of 47 since 2021
2-Year Treasury Yield+0.07pp20th-largest of 47 since 2021
S&P 500 Index-0.4%32nd-largest of 47 since 2021
10-Year Treasury Yield+0.01pp39th-largest of 47 since 2021
VIX Volatility Index+3.0%39th-largest of 47 since 2021
US Dollar / Euro Exchange Rate-0.0%40th-largest of 47 since 2021
US Dollar Index (Broad)+0.0%41st-largest of 47 since 2021

Each window is measured from the last close before the decision to the first close on or after it, and ranked only against the same series' other decision-day windows. Whether the decision explains a move is left to the reader — see the claims ledger and methodology.

Unusual for themselves

Moves bigger than 80% of comparable moves in each series' own record.

Producer Price Index by Commodity: Final Demand
2026-09-01
+1.3%
per month
Rarebigger than 99% of moves
France 10-Year Government Bond Yield
2026-09-01
+0.45pp
per month
Unusualbigger than 95% of moves
US Dollar Index (Broad)
2026-10-09
+3.0%
per month
Unusualbigger than 93% of moves
Euro Area 10-Year Government Bond Yield (ECB)
2026-09-01
+0.32pp
per month
Unusualbigger than 93% of moves
Euro High Yield Spread
2026-10-14
+0.51pp
per month
Unusualbigger than 92% of moves
30-Year Mortgage Rate
2026-10-15
+0.45pp
per month
Unusualbigger than 92% of moves
High Yield Corporate Bond Spread
2026-10-14
+0.49pp
per month
Unusualbigger than 92% of moves
90-Day AA Nonfinancial Commercial Paper Interest Rate
2026-10-13
+0.41pp
per month
Unusualbigger than 91% of moves
Monetary Base: Total
2026-08-01
-2.0%
per month
Unusualbigger than 88% of moves
US Inflation Rate (CPI)
2026-09-01
+0.6%
per month
Unusualbigger than 88% of moves
Germany 10-Year Government Bond Yield
2026-09-01
+0.28pp
per month
Unusualbigger than 88% of moves
Imports of Goods and Services
2026-04-01
+7.0%
per quarter
Unusualbigger than 88% of moves
US Dollar / Euro Exchange Rate
2026-10-09
-3.7%
per month
Unusualbigger than 88% of moves
Canadian Dollars to U.S. Dollar Spot Exchange Rate
2026-10-09
+3.4%
per month
Unusualbigger than 88% of moves
Gross Domestic Product: Implicit Price Deflator
2026-04-01
+1.5%
per quarter
Unusualbigger than 87% of moves
Exports of Goods and Services
2026-04-01
+7.0%
per quarter
Unusualbigger than 86% of moves
2-Year Treasury Yield (Monthly)
2026-09-01
+0.43pp
per month
Unusualbigger than 85% of moves
Secured Overnight Financing Rate
2026-10-14
+0.26pp
per month
Unusualbigger than 85% of moves
10-Year Treasury Yield (Monthly)
2026-09-01
+0.31pp
per month
Unusualbigger than 84% of moves
Corporate Profits After Tax (without IVA and CCAdj)
2026-04-01
+8.4%
per quarter
Unusualbigger than 84% of moves
Retail Sales: Retail Trade and Food Services
2026-08-01
+1.3%
per month
Unusualbigger than 83% of moves
US Adjusted Corporate Profits After Tax
2026-04-01
+7.7%
per quarter
Unusualbigger than 81% of moves

Everything else

Recent prints whose latest move sits inside their normal range.

Consumer Sentiment Index
2026-08-01
-6.3%
per month
Typicalbigger than 80% of moves
3-Month Treasury Bill Secondary Market Rate, Discount Basis
2026-10-14
+0.13pp
per month
Typicalbigger than 79% of moves
3-Month Treasury Bill Rate (Monthly)
2026-09-01
+0.22pp
per month
Typicalbigger than 77% of moves
10-Year Real Interest Rate
2026-10-14
+0.24pp
per month
Typicalbigger than 76% of moves
US Oil and Gas Extraction Capacity
2026-08-01
+0.3%
per month
Typicalbigger than 75% of moves
Personal Consumption Expenditures
2026-08-01
+0.9%
per month
Typicalbigger than 75% of moves
US Bank Credit Card and Revolving Loans
2026-09-30
+1.2%
per month
Typicalbigger than 75% of moves
Producer Price Index by Commodity: All Commodities
2026-08-01
+1.0%
per month
Typicalbigger than 74% of moves
Hires: Total Nonfarm
2026-08-01
+3.1%
per month
Typicalbigger than 73% of moves
US Gross Domestic Product
2026-04-01
+2.1%
per quarter
Typicalbigger than 72% of moves
Euro Area Harmonised Consumer Prices
2026-08-01
+0.4%
per month
Typicalbigger than 72% of moves
UK 10-Year Government Bond Yield
2026-09-01
+0.25pp
per month
Typicalbigger than 72% of moves
Employment Cost Index: Total compensation: All Civilian
2026-04-01
+0.9%
per quarter
Typicalbigger than 72% of moves
Japanese Yen / US Dollar Exchange Rate
2026-10-09
+2.8%
per month
Typicalbigger than 72% of moves
Moody's Baa Corporate Bond Yield
2026-09-01
+0.15pp
per month
Typicalbigger than 71% of moves
Federal Reserve Overnight Reverse Repos
2026-10-15
+71.6%
per month
Typicalbigger than 71% of moves
Canada 10-Year Government Bond Yield
2026-09-01
+0.21pp
per month
Typicalbigger than 70% of moves
Labor Force Participation Rate
2026-09-01
+0.20pp
per month
Typicalbigger than 70% of moves
US Real Hourly Compensation
2026-04-01
-0.8%
per quarter
Typicalbigger than 70% of moves
Japan Unemployment Rate
2026-08-01
+0.10pp
per month
Typicalbigger than 70% of moves
2-Year Treasury Yield
2026-10-14
+0.17pp
per month
Typicalbigger than 69% of moves
Personal Saving Rate
2026-08-01
-0.50pp
per month
Typicalbigger than 69% of moves
US Dollar / British Pound Exchange Rate
2026-10-09
-2.2%
per month
Typicalbigger than 68% of moves
Core CPI (Core Inflation Rate)
2026-09-01
+0.3%
per month
Typicalbigger than 68% of moves
US CPI: Shelter
2026-09-01
+0.4%
per month
Typicalbigger than 68% of moves
10-Year Treasury Yield
2026-10-14
+0.22pp
per month
Typicalbigger than 67% of moves
Japan 10-Year Government Bond Yield
2026-09-01
+0.11pp
per month
Typicalbigger than 66% of moves
UK Consumer Price Index (OECD)
2026-08-01
+0.5%
per month
Typicalbigger than 66% of moves
Real Gross Domestic Product for Euro Area (19 Countries)
2026-04-01
+0.6%
per quarter
Typicalbigger than 64% of moves
Homeownership Rate in the United States
2026-04-01
-0.30pp
per quarter
Typicalbigger than 64% of moves
PCE Price Index
2026-08-01
+0.3%
per month
Typicalbigger than 64% of moves
New One Family Houses Sold: United States
2026-08-01
+6.4%
per month
Typicalbigger than 63% of moves
US Manufacturing Weekly Hours
2026-09-01
+0.5%
per month
Typicalbigger than 61% of moves
30-Year Treasury Yield
2026-10-14
+0.18pp
per month
Typicalbigger than 61% of moves
Total Business: Inventories to Sales Ratio
2026-08-01
-0.7%
per month
Typicalbigger than 59% of moves
US Unemployment Rate
2026-09-01
+0.10pp
per month
Typicalbigger than 57% of moves
US Retail Sales
2026-09-01
+0.8%
per month
Typicalbigger than 57% of moves
Core PCE Price Index
2026-08-01
+0.2%
per month
Typicalbigger than 57% of moves
US Oil and Gas Extraction Production
2026-08-01
-0.8%
per month
Typicalbigger than 57% of moves
Philadelphia Fed General Activity Index
2026-10-01
-44.7%
per month
Typicalbigger than 56% of moves
Commercial and Industrial Loans, All Commercial Banks
2026-09-01
+0.8%
per month
Typicalbigger than 55% of moves
Federal Funds Rate
2026-09-01
+0.12pp
per month
Typicalbigger than 55% of moves
Federal Government Current Receipts
2026-04-01
+2.0%
per quarter
Typicalbigger than 53% of moves
Sahm Rule Recession Indicator
2026-09-01
+0.07pp
per month
Typicalbigger than 53% of moves
M1
2026-08-01
+0.5%
per month
Typicalbigger than 52% of moves
Total Business Inventories
2026-08-01
+0.4%
per month
Typicalbigger than 52% of moves
Job Openings: Total Nonfarm
2026-08-01
-3.5%
per month
Typicalbigger than 51% of moves
M2 Money Supply
2026-08-01
+0.5%
per month
Typicalbigger than 51% of moves
US CPI: Used Cars and Trucks
2026-09-01
+0.7%
per month
Typicalbigger than 51% of moves
Canada Real Gross Domestic Product
2026-04-01
+0.8%
per quarter
Typicalbigger than 50% of moves
US Total Construction Spending
2026-08-01
+0.9%
per month
Typicalbigger than 49% of moves
US U-6 Labour Underutilisation Rate
2026-09-01
-0.10pp
per month
Typicalbigger than 49% of moves
Employment-Population Ratio
2026-09-01
+0.10pp
per month
Typicalbigger than 48% of moves
Natural Gas Price (Henry Hub)
2026-10-14
+8.4%
per month
Typicalbigger than 47% of moves
Merchant Wholesalers Inventories
2026-08-01
+0.5%
per month
Typicalbigger than 46% of moves
S&P 500 Index
2026-10-15
+2.5%
per month
Typicalbigger than 45% of moves
ECB Deposit Facility Rate
2026-10-15
0.00pp
per month
Typicalbigger than 45% of moves
ECB Marginal Lending Facility Rate for Euro Area
2026-10-15
0.00pp
per month
Typicalbigger than 45% of moves
ECB Main Refinancing Rate
2026-10-15
0.00pp
per month
Typicalbigger than 45% of moves
US Residential Construction Spending
2026-08-01
+1.1%
per month
Typicalbigger than 44% of moves
Federal Funds Target Range - Upper Limit
2026-10-15
0.00pp
per month
Typicalbigger than 43% of moves
Canada Target Overnight Rate
2026-10-14
0.00pp
per month
Typicalbigger than 43% of moves
Delinquency Rate on All Loans, All Commercial Banks
2026-04-01
-0.08pp
per quarter
Typicalbigger than 43% of moves
UK Bank Rate
2026-10-15
0.00pp
per month
Typicalbigger than 43% of moves
US Commercial Real Estate Loans
2026-09-30
+0.4%
per month
Quietbigger than 40% of moves
NASDAQ Composite Index
2026-10-15
+2.8%
per month
Quietbigger than 40% of moves
Layoffs and Discharges: Total Nonfarm
2026-08-01
-3.6%
per month
Quietbigger than 39% of moves
All-Transactions House Price Index for the United States
2026-04-01
+1.1%
per quarter
Quietbigger than 39% of moves
Capacity Utilization: Manufacturing (SIC)
2026-08-01
-0.27pp
per month
Quietbigger than 38% of moves
10-Year Breakeven Inflation Rate
2026-10-15
-0.06pp
per month
Quietbigger than 38% of moves
US Core Capital Goods New Orders
2026-08-01
+1.6%
per month
Quietbigger than 37% of moves
Crude Oil Price (WTI)
2026-10-14
-4.8%
per month
Quietbigger than 37% of moves
Delinquency Rate on Credit Card Loans, All Commercial Banks
2026-04-01
-0.06pp
per quarter
Quietbigger than 36% of moves
Canada Consumer Price Index
2026-08-01
-0.1%
per month
Quietbigger than 36% of moves
Real Gross Domestic Product for Japan
2026-04-01
+0.4%
per quarter
Quietbigger than 34% of moves
Industrial Production: Manufacturing (NAICS)
2026-08-01
-0.3%
per month
Quietbigger than 34% of moves
Building Permits
2026-08-01
-2.1%
per month
Quietbigger than 33% of moves
Federal Government: Current Expenditures
2026-04-01
+1.1%
per quarter
Quietbigger than 31% of moves
UK Real Gross Domestic Product
2026-04-01
+0.4%
per quarter
Quietbigger than 31% of moves
US Nonfarm Labour Productivity
2026-04-01
+0.4%
per quarter
Quietbigger than 29% of moves
Real Gross Domestic Product
2026-04-01
+0.6%
per quarter
Quietbigger than 29% of moves
Central Bank Assets for Euro Area (11-19 Countries)
2026-10-09
+0.6%
per month
Quietbigger than 28% of moves
Chinese Yuan / US Dollar Exchange Rate
2026-10-09
-0.2%
per month
Quietbigger than 28% of moves
Consumer Loans, All Commercial Banks
2026-09-01
+0.4%
per month
Quietbigger than 28% of moves
Retailers Inventories
2026-08-01
+0.2%
per month
Quietbigger than 28% of moves
US CPI: Medical Care Services
2026-09-01
+0.3%
per month
Quietbigger than 28% of moves
Federal Funds Effective Rate
2026-10-14
0.00pp
per month
Quietbigger than 28% of moves
Crude Oil Price (Brent)
2026-10-14
-3.2%
per month
Quietbigger than 27% of moves
Housing Starts
2026-08-01
-2.6%
per month
Quietbigger than 27% of moves
5-Year, 5-Year Forward Inflation Expectation Rate
2026-10-15
-0.04pp
per month
Quietbigger than 26% of moves
Yield Curve (10Y-3M Spread)
2026-10-15
-0.07pp
per month
Quietbigger than 26% of moves
Revolving Consumer Credit Owned and Securitized
2026-08-01
-0.4%
per month
Quietbigger than 25% of moves
Average Hourly Earnings of All Employees, Total Private
2026-09-01
+0.1%
per month
Quietbigger than 25% of moves
Nonrevolving Consumer Credit Owned and Securitized
2026-08-01
+0.3%
per month
Quietbigger than 24% of moves
Average Weekly Hours of All Employees, Total Private
2026-09-01
0.0%
per month
Quietbigger than 24% of moves
Federal Debt: Total Public Debt
2026-04-01
+1.0%
per quarter
Quietbigger than 24% of moves
Euro Area Unemployment Rate (Eurostat)
2026-08-01
0.00pp
per month
Quietbigger than 23% of moves
Quits: Total Nonfarm
2026-08-01
0.0%
per month
Quietbigger than 22% of moves
5-Year Breakeven Inflation Rate
2026-10-14
-0.04pp
per month
Quietbigger than 21% of moves
Baa Corporate Bond Spread
2026-10-14
-0.03pp
per month
Quietbigger than 18% of moves
Nonfarm Business Sector: Unit Labor Costs for All Workers
2026-04-01
+0.3%
per quarter
Quietbigger than 18% of moves
Personal Income
2026-08-01
+0.2%
per month
Quietbigger than 16% of moves
Median Sales Price of New Houses Sold for the United States
2026-04-01
+0.5%
per quarter
Quietbigger than 16% of moves
US Utilities Industrial Production
2026-08-01
+0.9%
per month
Quietbigger than 15% of moves
US Residential Mortgage Delinquency Rate
2026-04-01
-0.02pp
per quarter
Quietbigger than 13% of moves
Real personal income excluding current transfer receipts
2026-08-01
-0.1%
per month
Quietbigger than 13% of moves
Manufacturers' New Orders: Consumer Goods
2026-08-01
-0.3%
per month
Quietbigger than 12% of moves
Fed Balance Sheet (Total Assets)
2026-10-14
+0.1%
per month
Quietbigger than 12% of moves
Real Estate Loans, All Commercial Banks
2026-09-01
+0.2%
per month
Quietbigger than 12% of moves
Total Consumer Credit Owned and Securitized
2026-08-01
+0.2%
per month
Quietbigger than 10% of moves
Canada Unemployment Rate
2026-08-01
0.00pp
per month
Quietbigger than 10% of moves
VIX Volatility Index
2026-10-14
-1.9%
per month
Quietbigger than 8% of moves
Shiller PE Ratio (CAPE)
2026-10-01
+0.3%
per month
Quietbigger than 8% of moves
Capacity Utilization: Total Index
2026-08-01
-0.05pp
per month
Quietbigger than 7% of moves
Initial Jobless Claims
2026-10-10
+0.5%
per month
Quietbigger than 7% of moves
Rental Vacancy Rate in the United States
2026-04-01
0.00pp
per quarter
Quietbigger than 6% of moves
Treasury General Account Balance
2026-10-14
+0.7%
per month
Quietbigger than 6% of moves
Real Disposable Personal Income
2026-08-01
-0.0%
per month
Quietbigger than 5% of moves
Industrial Production Index
2026-08-01
+0.0%
per month
Quietbigger than 4% of moves
All Employees, Total Nonfarm
2026-09-01
+0.0%
per month
Quietbigger than 4% of moves
Manufacturers' New Orders: Total Manufacturing
2026-08-01
+0.1%
per month
Quietbigger than 3% of moves
Manufacturers' New Orders: Durable Goods
2026-08-01
-0.1%
per month
Quietbigger than 2% of moves
Yield Curve (10Y-2Y Spread)
2026-10-15
0.00pp
per month
Quietbigger than 1% of moves

No recent print

These series have not published within their usual release window, so their last move says nothing about now. They are listed rather than dropped so the gap is visible.

Bank Credit, All Commercial Banks
1999-07-14· no print in 9956 days
+5.6%
per month
Rarebigger than 100% of moves
Japan Industrial Production
2024-03-01· no print in 959 days
+4.0%
per month
Rarebigger than 97% of moves
UK Industrial Production
2026-07-01· no print in 107 days
+0.9%
per month
Typicalbigger than 61% of moves
Japan Consumer Price Index
2022-04-01· no print in 1659 days
+0.4%
per month
Typicalbigger than 59% of moves
UK Consumer Price Index
2025-03-01· no print in 594 days
+0.4%
per month
Typicalbigger than 51% of moves
Japan Central Bank Rate
2023-12-01· no print in 1050 days
0.00pp
per month
Typicalbigger than 45% of moves
Canada Industrial Production (OECD)
2026-07-01· no print in 107 days
-0.6%
per month
Typicalbigger than 41% of moves
Federal Funds Target Rate
2008-12-15· no print in 6514 days
0.00pp
per month
Quietbigger than 39% of moves
Canada Central Bank Rate
2023-12-01· no print in 1050 days
0.00pp
per month
Quietbigger than 26% of moves
Euro Area Unemployment Rate
2023-01-01· no print in 1384 days
0.00pp
per month
Quietbigger than 22% of moves
UK Unemployment Rate
2026-06-01· no print in 137 days
0.00pp
per month
Quietbigger than 19% of moves
UK Unemployment Rate (OECD)
2026-06-01· no print in 137 days
0.00pp
per month
Quietbigger than 19% of moves
Case-Shiller Home Price Index
2026-07-01· no print in 107 days
+0.1%
per month
Quietbigger than 15% of moves
Canada Industrial Production
2024-02-01· no print in 988 days
+0.1%
per month
Quietbigger than 12% of moves
Euro Area 10-Year Government Bond Yield
2026-01-01· no print in 288 days
-0.02pp
per month
Quietbigger than 9% of moves
US Finance Company Motor Vehicle Loans
2026-07-01· no print in 107 days
-0.1%
per month
Quietbigger than 9% of moves
Japan Industrial Production (OECD)
2026-07-01· no print in 107 days
-0.1%
per month
Quietbigger than 4% of moves
US Debt to GDP Ratio
2026-01-01· no print in 288 days
+0.03pp
per quarter
Quietbigger than 3% of moves
Global Copper Price
2026-07-01· no print in 107 days
-0.1%
per month
Quietbigger than 1% of moves
S&P 500 Dividend Yield
2026-06-01· no print in 137 days
+0.00pp
per month
Quietbigger than 0% of moves

How the ranking works

For each series we measure the change over roughly one month — 21 trading days for daily series, four weeks for weekly, one period for monthly and quarterly — then compare it against every other same-length move in that series' history. The percentile is the answer to one question: how often has this series moved this much?

Series already quoted in percent, like the unemployment rate or a Treasury yield, are compared in percentage points. Everything else — indices, dollar amounts, counts — is compared in percent change. Mixing the two is what produces headlines claiming unemployment "jumped 8%" when it went from 4.0 to 4.3.

A series needs at least 60 prior moves before we quote a percentile, and the comparison window is always the history actually read, which is why the sentences say "since 1990" rather than "ever". Latest values are subject to revision by the source agency.

Dates are the period each figure covers, not the day it was published: July's CPI is dated 1 July and released in mid-August. A series counts as current if it has printed within its usual release window, which is generous enough to absorb one missed release — so a series that stops publishing takes a few months to fall into "no recent print".

The "coming up" and "official record" panels are drawn from the institutions themselves — FRED's release calendar, the Fed's meeting schedule and press feed, and the ECB, Bank of England and Bank of Japan press feeds — and are placed next to the moves, not merged with them. Whether an event explains a move is a judgement this page deliberately does not make.

This page describes what happened. It is a historical indicator, not advice — the exact rule behind every sentence is in the claims ledger; see also methodology and limitations. For where a reading sits rather than how it just moved, see where things sit in their own history.