Core inflation in its own top decile
In every month core CPI inflation sat in the top decile of its own ten-year history, what did the 10-year Treasury yield do over the following year?
7 windows met these conditions and completed 12 months. 10-Year Treasury Yield was higher 12 months later in 3 of them and lower in 4. The middle half of outcomes fell between -0.8 and 0.77.
What followed, across 7 completed windows
- Higher after
- 3
- Lower after
- 4
- Middle half
- -0.8 to +0.77
- Full range
- -1.38 to +2.77
Change in 10-Year Treasury Yield over the 12 months after each match. Windows are listed below so any one can be checked.
Term structure
10-Year Treasury Yield measured 1, 3, 6 and 12 months after each matched episode, with the count of completed windows at each horizon — not a forecast path, the same distribution above asked again at three more calendar distances.
| Horizon | N | Higher / lower | Middle half | Full range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1m | 7 | 3 / 4 | -0.23 to +0.12 | -0.4 to +0.2 |
| 3m | 7 | 2 / 5 | -0.29 to +0.11 | -0.35 to +0.45 |
| 6m | 7 | 2 / 5 | -0.47 to +0.06 | -0.86 to +0.52 |
| 12m | 7 | 3 / 4 | -0.8 to +0.77 | -1.38 to +2.77 |
N is windows with a complete outcome at that horizon; a window that runs past the end of the record is excluded from it, not filled in. A horizon below the 5-window floor is marked thin the same way the 12 months result above is.
The conditions, in full
Generated from the same object that produced the numbers, so the description cannot drift from the computation.
- condition: CPILFESL year-over-year above its 90th percentile over 2520 observations
- align: each condition is put onto the measured series' dates, taking the last observation on or before each, so windows and spans count in the measured series' own periods
- measure: DGS10 over the following 252 observations
- matches within 63 observations count as one episode
Every matching window
7 episodes, each dated. Consecutive months meeting the conditions count once.
| Began | Ran for | 10-Year Treasury Yield then | After | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 1974 | 334 mo | 7.42 | 8.26 | +0.84 |
| Feb 1979 | 476 mo | 8.94 | 11.71 | +2.77 |
| Jun 2006 | 187 mo | 5.11 | 4.95 | -0.16 |
| May 2018 | 64 mo | 2.97 | 2.51 | -0.46 |
| Dec 2018 | 18 mo | 2.98 | 1.84 | -1.14 |
| Aug 2019 | 144 mo | 1.9 | 0.52 | -1.38 |
| Apr 2021 | 481 mo | 1.69 | 2.39 | +0.7 |
Recompute this
Fetch CPILFESL DGS10 from the API or from FRED, apply each condition on the same dates, collapse consecutive matches, and measure the change over the following 12 months. The full rule is in the claims ledger.
This page counts and dates. It does not say what will happen next, and no window above is presented as more likely than another — MacroRadar publishes historical indicators, never forecasts.