Macro studies
A study is a question stated precisely enough that the answer is a count. Does an inverted curve mean a recession is coming is not one. In every month since 1976 where the ten-year sat below the two-year, what did unemployment do over the following year is — and the answer is a list of dates and a spread, which anyone can check.
Each page names its conditions in full, lists every window that met them, and gives the sample size. None of them says what happens next. That is not modesty about the data; it is the rule these pages are built on.
- After a curve inversion
In every month the 10-year yield sat below the 2-year, what did unemployment do over the following year?
- Inverted curve, unemployment already rising
In every month the curve was inverted AND unemployment had already been rising for a quarter, what did unemployment do over the following year?
- The Fed cutting into rising unemployment
In every month the federal funds rate had been falling for a quarter while unemployment was rising, what did unemployment do over the following year?
- Hiking into a flattening curve
In every month the federal funds rate had been rising for half a year while the 10-year minus 2-year spread was narrowing, what did the spread do over the following year?
- Unemployment at a decade low
In every month unemployment sat in the lowest tenth of its own past ten years, what did it do over the following two years?
- Real yields at a decade high
In every month the 10-year real yield sat in the top tenth of its own past decade, what did the 10-year nominal yield do over the following year?
- Market inflation expectations above 2.5%
In every month the 10-year breakeven inflation rate sat above 2.5%, what did the federal funds rate do over the following year?
- A curve steepening back out of inversion
In every month the curve was still inverted but had been steepening for a quarter, what did unemployment do over the following year?
- Core PCE above the Fed's target
In every month core PCE inflation ran above the Fed's 2% target, what did the federal funds rate do over the following year?
- Inflation above 5%
In every month headline CPI inflation ran above 5%, what did unemployment do over the following year?
- Disinflation while unemployment was rising
In every month core CPI inflation had been falling for a quarter AND unemployment had been rising, what did unemployment do over the following year?
- Core inflation in its own top decile
In every month core CPI inflation sat in the top decile of its own ten-year history, what did the 10-year Treasury yield do over the following year?
- Industrial production contracting
In every month industrial production was lower than a year earlier, what did unemployment do over the following year?
- Hot inflation, tight labour market
In every month CPI inflation ran above 4% AND unemployment sat below 5%, what did the federal funds rate do over the following year?
- Credit spread at a decade high
In every month the Baa corporate bond spread sat in the top decile of its own past decade, what did unemployment do over the following year?
- Credit spreads widening while the Fed cuts
In every month the Baa spread had been widening for a quarter AND the federal funds rate had been falling for a quarter, what did unemployment do over the following year?
- A curve steepening back out of inversion — the 10-year yield
In every month the curve was still inverted but had been steepening for a quarter, what did the 10-year Treasury yield do over the following year?
- The 10-year yield up half a point in a quarter
In every month the 10-year Treasury yield had risen more than half a percentage point over the prior quarter, what did it do over the following year?
- The Fed cutting for half a year — the 10-year yield
In every month the federal funds rate had been falling for half a year, what did the 10-year Treasury yield do over the following year?
The catalogue is a written list rather than every combination of series. Enumerating pairs would produce thousands of pages nobody asked a question to get.