Disinflation while unemployment was rising
In every month core CPI inflation had been falling for a quarter AND unemployment had been rising, what did unemployment do over the following year?
45 windows met these conditions and completed 12 months. US Unemployment Rate was higher 12 months later in 18 of them and lower in 27. The middle half of outcomes fell between -0.6 and 0.8. 1 further window has not yet run their full horizon.
What followed, across 45 completed windows
- Higher after
- 18
- Lower after
- 27
- Middle half
- -0.6 to +0.8
- Full range
- -2.2 to +3.5
Change in US Unemployment Rate over the 12 months after each match. Windows are listed below so any one can be checked.
Term structure
US Unemployment Rate measured 1, 3, 6 and 12 months after each matched episode, with the count of completed windows at each horizon — not a forecast path, the same distribution above asked again at three more calendar distances.
| Horizon | N | Higher / lower | Middle half | Full range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1m | 46 | 17 / 20 | -0.1 to +0.1 | -0.4 to +0.4 |
| 3m | 46 | 18 / 20 | -0.2 to +0.2 | -0.5 to +1.3 |
| 6m | 46 | 21 / 25 | -0.3 to +0.35 | -0.7 to +7.4 |
| 12m | 45 | 18 / 27 | -0.6 to +0.8 | -2.2 to +3.5 |
N is windows with a complete outcome at that horizon; a window that runs past the end of the record is excluded from it, not filled in. A horizon below the 5-window floor is marked thin the same way the 12 months result above is.
The conditions, in full
Generated from the same object that produced the numbers, so the description cannot drift from the computation.
- condition: CPILFESL year-over-year falling over 3 observations
- condition: UNRATE rising over 3 observations
- align: each condition is put onto the measured series' dates, taking the last observation on or before each, so windows and spans count in the measured series' own periods
- measure: UNRATE over the following 12 observations
- matches within 3 observations count as one episode
Every matching window
46 episodes, each dated. Consecutive months meeting the conditions count once.
| Began | Ran for | US Unemployment Rate then | After | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 1958 | 4 mo | 7.4 | 5.2 | -2.2 |
| Aug 1959 | 4 mo | 5.2 | 5.6 | +0.4 |
| Mar 1960 | 14 mo | 5.4 | 6.9 | +1.5 |
| Aug 1962 | 2 mo | 5.7 | 5.4 | -0.3 |
| Jan 1963 | 3 mo | 5.7 | 5.6 | -0.1 |
| Oct 1964 | 1 mo | 5.1 | 4.2 | -0.9 |
| Feb 1965 | 1 mo | 5.1 | 3.8 | -1.3 |
| Jan 1967 | 2 mo | 3.9 | 3.7 | -0.2 |
| Jun 1967 | 1 mo | 3.9 | 3.7 | -0.2 |
| Oct 1967 | 2 mo | 4 | 3.4 | -0.6 |
| Jul 1969 | 1 mo | 3.5 | 5 | +1.5 |
| Apr 1970 | 1 mo | 4.6 | 5.9 | +1.3 |
| Aug 1970 | 3 mo | 5.1 | 6.1 | +1 |
| Jul 1971 | 3 mo | 6 | 5.6 | -0.4 |
| Mar 1975 | 4 mo | 8.6 | 7.6 | -1 |
| Dec 1976 | 1 mo | 7.8 | 6.4 | -1.4 |
| Jul 1980 | 2 mo | 7.8 | 7.2 | -0.6 |
| Mar 1981 | 4 mo | 7.4 | 9 | +1.6 |
| Oct 1981 | 15 mo | 7.9 | 10.4 | +2.5 |
| Sep 1984 | 1 mo | 7.3 | 7.1 | -0.2 |
| Jun 1985 | 2 mo | 7.4 | 7.2 | -0.2 |
| Feb 1986 | 3 mo | 7.2 | 6.6 | -0.6 |
| Jun 1989 | 1 mo | 5.3 | 5.2 | -0.1 |
| Oct 1989 | 2 mo | 5.3 | 5.9 | +0.6 |
| Nov 1990 | 21 mo | 6.2 | 7 | +0.8 |
| Aug 1995 | 1 mo | 5.7 | 5.1 | -0.6 |
| Jan 1996 | 1 mo | 5.6 | 5.3 | -0.3 |
| May 1996 | 1 mo | 5.6 | 4.9 | -0.7 |
| Nov 1996 | 3 mo | 5.4 | 4.6 | -0.8 |
| Jun 1999 | 1 mo | 4.3 | 4 | -0.3 |
| May 2001 | 1 mo | 4.3 | 5.8 | +1.5 |
| Sep 2001 | 10 mo | 5 | 5.7 | +0.7 |
| Nov 2002 | 8 mo | 5.9 | 5.8 | -0.1 |
| Nov 2005 | 1 mo | 5 | 4.5 | -0.5 |
| Jan 2007 | 1 mo | 4.6 | 5 | +0.4 |
| Jun 2007 | 4 mo | 4.6 | 5.6 | +1 |
| Feb 2008 | 2 mo | 4.9 | 8.3 | +3.4 |
| Oct 2008 | 5 mo | 6.5 | 10 | +3.5 |
| Jun 2009 | 4 mo | 9.5 | 9.4 | -0.1 |
| Apr 2010 | 1 mo | 9.9 | 9.1 | -0.8 |
| Sep 2010 | 3 mo | 9.5 | 9 | -0.5 |
| Dec 2012 | 2 mo | 7.9 | 6.7 | -1.2 |
| Dec 2019 | 7 mo | 3.6 | 6.7 | +3.1 |
| Jun 2023 | 15 mo | 3.6 | 4.1 | +0.5 |
| Mar 2025 | 3 mo | 4.2 | 4.3 | +0.1 |
| Nov 2025 | 2 mo | 4.5 | — | still running |
Recompute this
Fetch CPILFESL UNRATE from the API or from FRED, apply each condition on the same dates, collapse consecutive matches, and measure the change over the following 12 months. The full rule is in the claims ledger.
This page counts and dates. It does not say what will happen next, and no window above is presented as more likely than another — MacroRadar publishes historical indicators, never forecasts.