The Fed cutting for half a year — the 10-year yield

Term structure

10-Year Treasury Yield measured 1, 3, 6 and 12 months after each matched episode, with the count of completed windows at each horizon — not a forecast path, the same distribution above asked again at three more calendar distances.

N is windows with a complete outcome at that horizon; a window that runs past the end of the record is excluded from it, not filled in. A horizon below the 5-window floor is marked thin the same way the 12 months result above is.

The conditions, in full

Generated from the same object that produced the numbers, so the description cannot drift from the computation.

1. condition: FEDFUNDS falling over 126 observations
2. align: each condition is put onto the measured series' dates, taking the last observation on or before each, so windows and spans count in the measured series' own periods
3. measure: DGS10 over the following 252 observations
4. matches within 63 observations count as one episode

Every matching window

26 episodes, each dated. Consecutive months meeting the conditions count once.