The Fed cutting into rising unemployment
In every month the federal funds rate had been falling for a quarter while unemployment was rising, what did unemployment do over the following year?
35 windows met these conditions and completed 12 months. US Unemployment Rate was higher 12 months later in 16 of them and lower in 18. The middle half of outcomes fell between -0.6 and 1.5. 1 further window has not yet run their full horizon.
What followed, across 35 completed windows
- Higher after
- 16
- Lower after
- 18
- Middle half
- -0.6 to +1.5
- Full range
- -1.6 to +3.3
Change in US Unemployment Rate over the 12 months after each match. Windows are listed below so any one can be checked.
Term structure
US Unemployment Rate measured 1, 3, 6 and 12 months after each matched episode, with the count of completed windows at each horizon — not a forecast path, the same distribution above asked again at three more calendar distances.
| Horizon | N | Higher / lower | Middle half | Full range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1m | 36 | 11 / 18 | -0.1 to +0.1 | -0.3 to +0.6 |
| 3m | 36 | 14 / 17 | -0.2 to +0.2 | -0.5 to +1.5 |
| 6m | 36 | 18 / 17 | -0.32 to +0.43 | -1 to +7.4 |
| 12m | 35 | 16 / 18 | -0.6 to +1.5 | -1.6 to +3.3 |
N is windows with a complete outcome at that horizon; a window that runs past the end of the record is excluded from it, not filled in. A horizon below the 5-window floor is marked thin the same way the 12 months result above is.
The conditions, in full
Generated from the same object that produced the numbers, so the description cannot drift from the computation.
- condition: FEDFUNDS falling over 3 observations
- condition: UNRATE rising over 3 observations
- align: each condition is put onto the measured series' dates, taking the last observation on or before each, so windows and spans count in the measured series' own periods
- measure: UNRATE over the following 12 observations
- matches within 3 observations count as one episode
Every matching window
36 episodes, each dated. Consecutive months meeting the conditions count once.
| Began | Ran for | US Unemployment Rate then | After | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 1956 | 2 mo | 4.2 | 5.2 | +1 |
| Jul 1957 | 1 mo | 4.2 | 7.5 | +3.3 |
| Dec 1957 | 8 mo | 5.2 | 6.2 | +1 |
| Mar 1960 | 11 mo | 5.4 | 6.9 | +1.5 |
| May 1961 | 1 mo | 7.1 | 5.5 | -1.6 |
| Nov 1963 | 3 mo | 5.7 | 4.8 | -0.9 |
| Oct 1964 | 1 mo | 5.1 | 4.2 | -0.9 |
| Jan 1967 | 2 mo | 3.9 | 3.7 | -0.2 |
| Jun 1967 | 1 mo | 3.9 | 3.7 | -0.2 |
| Jan 1970 | 13 mo | 3.9 | 5.9 | +2 |
| Dec 1973 | 4 mo | 4.9 | 7.2 | +2.3 |
| Sep 1974 | 9 mo | 5.9 | 8.4 | +2.5 |
| Dec 1976 | 1 mo | 7.8 | 6.4 | -1.4 |
| May 1980 | 4 mo | 7.5 | 7.5 | 0 |
| Mar 1981 | 1 mo | 7.4 | 9 | +1.6 |
| Sep 1981 | 5 mo | 7.6 | 10.1 | +2.5 |
| May 1982 | 8 mo | 9.4 | 10.1 | +0.7 |
| Jun 1985 | 2 mo | 7.4 | 7.2 | -0.2 |
| Feb 1986 | 3 mo | 7.2 | 6.6 | -0.6 |
| Jun 1989 | 1 mo | 5.3 | 5.2 | -0.1 |
| Oct 1989 | 4 mo | 5.3 | 5.9 | +0.6 |
| May 1990 | 27 mo | 5.4 | 6.9 | +1.5 |
| Aug 1995 | 1 mo | 5.7 | 5.1 | -0.6 |
| Jan 1996 | 1 mo | 5.6 | 5.3 | -0.3 |
| Dec 1996 | 1 mo | 5.4 | 4.7 | -0.7 |
| Sep 1998 | 1 mo | 4.6 | 4.2 | -0.4 |
| Jun 1999 | 1 mo | 4.3 | 4 | -0.3 |
| Jan 2001 | 14 mo | 4.2 | 5.7 | +1.5 |
| Nov 2002 | 3 mo | 5.9 | 5.8 | -0.1 |
| Jun 2003 | 2 mo | 6.3 | 5.6 | -0.7 |
| Jun 2007 | 31 mo | 4.6 | 5.6 | +1 |
| Jun 2011 | 1 mo | 9.1 | 8.2 | -0.9 |
| Jan 2013 | 1 mo | 8 | 6.6 | -1.4 |
| Dec 2019 | 7 mo | 3.6 | 6.7 | +3.1 |
| Mar 2025 | 1 mo | 4.2 | 4.3 | +0.1 |
| Sep 2025 | 3 mo | 4.4 | — | still running |
Recompute this
Fetch FEDFUNDS UNRATE from the API or from FRED, apply each condition on the same dates, collapse consecutive matches, and measure the change over the following 12 months. The full rule is in the claims ledger.
This page counts and dates. It does not say what will happen next, and no window above is presented as more likely than another — MacroRadar publishes historical indicators, never forecasts.