Industrial production contracting
In every month industrial production was lower than a year earlier, what did unemployment do over the following year?
22 windows met these conditions and completed 12 months. US Unemployment Rate was higher 12 months later in 15 of them and lower in 7. The middle half of outcomes fell between -0.17 and 2.15.
What followed, across 22 completed windows
- Higher after
- 15
- Lower after
- 7
- Middle half
- -0.17 to +2.15
- Full range
- -0.7 to +11.1
Change in US Unemployment Rate over the 12 months after each match. Windows are listed below so any one can be checked.
Term structure
US Unemployment Rate measured 1, 3, 6 and 12 months after each matched episode, with the count of completed windows at each horizon — not a forecast path, the same distribution above asked again at three more calendar distances.
| Horizon | N | Higher / lower | Middle half | Full range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1m | 22 | 13 / 4 | 0 to +0.3 | -0.3 to +1 |
| 3m | 22 | 16 / 4 | +0.02 to +0.67 | -0.5 to +1.7 |
| 6m | 22 | 15 / 6 | -0.07 to +1.4 | -0.7 to +2.9 |
| 12m | 22 | 15 / 7 | -0.17 to +2.15 | -0.7 to +11.1 |
N is windows with a complete outcome at that horizon; a window that runs past the end of the record is excluded from it, not filled in. A horizon below the 5-window floor is marked thin the same way the 12 months result above is.
The conditions, in full
Generated from the same object that produced the numbers, so the description cannot drift from the computation.
- condition: INDPRO year-over-year below 0
- align: each condition is put onto the measured series' dates, taking the last observation on or before each, so windows and spans count in the measured series' own periods
- measure: UNRATE over the following 12 observations
- matches within 3 observations count as one episode
Every matching window
22 episodes, each dated. Consecutive months meeting the conditions count once.
| Began | Ran for | US Unemployment Rate then | After | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 1949 | 13 mo | 4.3 | 6.5 | +2.2 |
| Aug 1951 | 1 mo | 3.1 | 3.4 | +0.3 |
| Apr 1952 | 4 mo | 2.9 | 2.7 | -0.2 |
| Nov 1953 | 13 mo | 3.5 | 5.3 | +1.8 |
| Jul 1956 | 1 mo | 4.4 | 4.2 | -0.2 |
| Oct 1957 | 13 mo | 4.5 | 6.7 | +2.2 |
| May 1960 | 2 mo | 5.1 | 7.1 | +2 |
| Dec 1960 | 6 mo | 6.6 | 6 | -0.6 |
| Jul 1967 | 1 mo | 3.8 | 3.7 | -0.1 |
| Jan 1970 | 16 mo | 3.9 | 5.9 | +2 |
| Sep 1974 | 15 mo | 5.9 | 8.4 | +2.5 |
| Dec 1979 | 16 mo | 6 | 7.2 | +1.2 |
| Nov 1981 | 18 mo | 8.3 | 10.8 | +2.5 |
| Jul 1985 | 1 mo | 7.4 | 7 | -0.4 |
| Jul 1989 | 7 mo | 5.2 | 5.5 | +0.3 |
| Dec 1990 | 11 mo | 6.3 | 7.3 | +1 |
| Feb 2001 | 16 mo | 4.2 | 5.7 | +1.5 |
| Jun 2003 | 1 mo | 6.3 | 5.6 | -0.7 |
| Apr 2008 | 21 mo | 5 | 9 | +4 |
| Mar 2015 | 24 mo | 5.4 | 5 | -0.4 |
| Apr 2019 | 23 mo | 3.7 | 14.8 | +11.1 |
| Dec 2022 | 25 mo | 3.5 | 3.8 | +0.3 |
Recompute this
Fetch INDPRO UNRATE from the API or from FRED, apply each condition on the same dates, collapse consecutive matches, and measure the change over the following 12 months. The full rule is in the claims ledger.
This page counts and dates. It does not say what will happen next, and no window above is presented as more likely than another — MacroRadar publishes historical indicators, never forecasts.