Unemployment at a decade low
In every month unemployment sat in the lowest tenth of its own past ten years, what did it do over the following two years?
6 windows met these conditions and completed 24 months. US Unemployment Rate was higher 24 months later in 2 of them and lower in 4. The middle half of outcomes fell between -0.55 and 0.1.
What followed, across 6 completed windows
- Higher after
- 2
- Lower after
- 4
- Middle half
- -0.55 to +0.1
- Full range
- -0.8 to +0.3
Change in US Unemployment Rate over the 24 months after each match. Windows are listed below so any one can be checked.
Term structure
US Unemployment Rate measured 1, 3, 6 and 12 months after each matched episode, with the count of completed windows at each horizon — not a forecast path, the same distribution above asked again at three more calendar distances.
| Horizon | N | Higher / lower | Middle half | Full range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1m | 6 | 2 / 3 | -0.1 to +0.07 | -0.2 to +0.1 |
| 3m | 6 | 1 / 4 | -0.2 to -0.02 | -0.3 to +0.3 |
| 6m | 6 | 1 / 3 | -0.2 to 0 | -0.2 to +0.1 |
| 12m | 6 | 0 / 5 | -0.5 to -0.3 | -0.5 to 0 |
N is windows with a complete outcome at that horizon; a window that runs past the end of the record is excluded from it, not filled in. A horizon below the 5-window floor is marked thin the same way the 24 months result above is.
The conditions, in full
Generated from the same object that produced the numbers, so the description cannot drift from the computation.
- condition: UNRATE below its 10th percentile over 120 observations
- align: each condition is put onto the measured series' dates, taking the last observation on or before each, so windows and spans count in the measured series' own periods
- measure: UNRATE over the following 24 observations
- matches within 6 observations count as one episode
Every matching window
6 episodes, each dated. Consecutive months meeting the conditions count once.
| Began | Ran for | US Unemployment Rate then | After | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 1965 | 17 mo | 4.1 | 3.9 | -0.2 |
| Jan 1968 | 17 mo | 3.7 | 3.9 | +0.2 |
| Nov 1987 | 32 mo | 5.8 | 5.4 | -0.4 |
| Aug 1996 | 53 mo | 5.1 | 4.5 | -0.6 |
| Feb 2017 | 37 mo | 4.6 | 3.8 | -0.8 |
| May 2022 | 15 mo | 3.6 | 3.9 | +0.3 |
Recompute this
Fetch UNRATE from the API or from FRED, apply each condition on the same dates, collapse consecutive matches, and measure the change over the following 24 months. The full rule is in the claims ledger.
This page counts and dates. It does not say what will happen next, and no window above is presented as more likely than another — MacroRadar publishes historical indicators, never forecasts.